This slate is glorious not only because there are day games in it but because there are also sizable edges in the player prop market. My top five player props will make great additions to your card as the men on the mound have provided value in many different ways. So let’s find out who we are betting and how we’re betting them with today’s top player props of the slate.
Cory Abbott Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals 1:05 pm ET
Cory Abbott has gone from reliever to fixture in the Nationals’ rotation, but his results have not been too impressive. He enters with a 5.94 ERA and only averages a strikeout per inning. While his average may give him a case for going over this strikeout total, that would mean he would have to go five innings, which he has only done in one of his three starts. Abbott’s season high in strikeouts is five, and the question mark surrounding his length in this outing means the price should be much higher than it is right now.
Cal Quantrill Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-143)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians 7:10 pm ET
This line is way too high for Quantrill. This total is made entirely off the matchup and the results of his last outing against Detroit. It makes sense, since Detroit has the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors and Quantrill had five strikeouts against them back in July. However, the bigger picture paints a much different story. Quantrill has gone under this total in 90.9% of his starts this season. That gives us staggering implied odds of -999 that he will go under again here.
Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-108)
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves 7:20 pm ET
The Mets need a big performance out of Scherzer after dropping the first two games of the series and losing both starting pitchers to injury. Mad Max loves competition, and there is no bigger game yet than this one against Atlanta. The Braves come into this matchup with the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the majors. We have already seen Max take advantage of that, as he struck out 11 Braves just a few weeks ago. At this stage, if Max is on, we should see him go well over this total again.
Tony Gonsolin Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+110)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers 8:10 pm ET
Tony Gonsolin has been tremendous at creating soft contact this season. He ranks in the top 25% of the majors in hard-hit and barrel rates. That is primarily due to his split-finger and slider that each have BAAs under .130. The Brewers are certainly not the most potent lineup that Gonsollin will face this year, and they are 24th in BABIP. With all of this factored in, it is a surprise to see the total at plus money, especially when Gonsolin has gone under it 76% of the time this season.
Michael Kopech Over 1.5 Walks (-160)
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox 8:10 pm ET
Kopech comes into this start off his best performance of the season, as he struck out 11 Tigers over six shutout innings and did not allow a hit. However, he still managed to walk three batters, and that has been his issue this season. Kopech’s walk rate is in the bottom 10% of all qualified pitchers, and tonight, he has a formidable Astros lineup that he’ll need to be careful with. Not only can the Astros do damage on balls in the zone, but they won’t chase outside of it. As a result, Houston has the eighth-highest walk rate in the majors. In this matchup, Kopech is a near lock to go over, as he already has in 76.2% of his starts this season.
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