The Houston Astros have a chance to win the World Series tonight. They’re leading the Philadelphia Phillies 3-2 and are now headed back home for the final two games.
The Astros have earned a postseason bid 15 times and have played in the World Series five times. But they’ve only won one title in the four previous World Series opportunities.
Can the Astros take care of business in Game 6, or will the Phillies force a Game 7 on the road?
Here are our best bets for tonight’s Game 6 between the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros
The Houston Astros will send out Framber Valdez for tonight’s Game 6. He’s already 2-0 in the postseason and has a 1.42 ERA.
In the last 30 days, his xFIP has been pretty on point, with his ERA, at 1.77. He has walked 8.1% of batters faced, which is a bit high. But the left-hander has still struck out 23.5% of batters and has induced 67% of ground balls when the ball is in play.
Valdez has limited extra-base hits to both sides and continues to earn high strikeouts to both sides of the plate at a high rate.
Meanwhile, the Phillies have hit just a .127 ISO against lefties over the last month. Only Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper have truly inflated numbers against lefties. Nick Castellanos has a .391 wOBA, along with Harper, who has a .523 wOBA. Edmundo Sosa has also been a quality pick-up for the Phillies, hitting a .462 wOBA against lefties over the last month.
But the entire projected lineup has also stuck out 26.2% of the time with under 6% of walks. On top of that, they’ve hit 62.5% of ground balls against lefties over the last 30 days. That’s not good news going up against Valdez.
On the other hand, Zack Wheeler will get the call for the Phillies. He’s 1-2 with a 2.67 ERA on the season. He’s been excellent but isn’t getting run support in the postseason.
Wheeler has had a 2.28 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s struck out 24.3% of batters and has walked 5.2%. He’s even been able to keep his BABIP to .184. Both sides of the plate are hitting a .085 ISO, which is super low, and he’s limited wOBA on both sides.
Wheeler also got an extra day of rest, as he was moved to Game 6 when Aaron Nola pitched Game 4. He’ll have more of a challenge against a Houston lineup with a .183 ISO and wOBA of .329 against righties in the last 30 days.
The Astros have six batters hitting a high wOBA against righties over the last 30 days, with six more batters hitting a high ISO against righties. The Astros won’t have incredible success at the plate, but they’ve limited strikeouts to righties to under 22% and have earned nearly 8% of walks against righties in the last month.
Houston’s also hit nearly 30% of line drives with their lineup against righties in that same time frame.
The Astros are in a much better spot heading into Game 6. Valdez has been slightly more consistent and should earn a ton of strikeouts and ground balls in tonight’s game.
I like the Astros and the Under. This could be the final game in 2022 for the MLB.
Bet: Astros (-150 at DraftKings)
Bet: Under 7 (-120 at DraftKings)
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