Monday’s Best Bets: NCAA Tournament, MLB & NHL Picks (4/3)

No matter your sport of choice, there’s always sports betting action to be had. We’ll have you covered each and every day with our daily best bets. Here are all of our best bets across each major sport in action today.

Check out all of our picks and predictions for the week in our 2023 Masters Betting Guide >>

Today’s Best Bets

Here are today’s best bets.

National Championship Picks

History is working against the Aztecs in this matchup. Per ESPN Stats & Info, this was the third time in the previous 70 years that three teams were making their Final Four debuts, but none of those teams cut down the nets. Meanwhile, UConn is 4-0 in national championships, and the Huskies are 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS against non-conference opponents this year. However, if you know our betting style, we never turn down a contrarian play, especially in high-exposure matchups like this. Given that UConn has already gone from -6 to -7.5 in less than 12 hours, it is safe to say most of the money will be on the Huskies come Monday.

Further influencing the general public's thoughts on this game is that UConn never trailed in its dominant victory over Miami. At the same time, San Diego State had not led FAU from the 7:26 mark in the first half until Lamont Butler's buzzer-beater with no time remaining (the first buzzer-beater in a National Semifinal when his team was trailing before the shot, per Sportsnet Stats). However, unlike other teams that have wilted when UConn has raced out to a big lead, San Diego State entered yesterday with the third-best record in Division I (7-2) when trailing at halftime, and has now won six consecutive games when trailing at the half. That speaks to the Aztecs' composure and experience, as they are the 21st-most experienced team and ranked 40th in minutes continuity from a year ago (UConn ranks 113th and 248th in those categories, respectively).

Miami would have had a chance to make the game closer against UConn if not for shooting 8-of-23 at the rim. While much credit goes to the interior defense of Huskies centers Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan, San Diego State's offense is not built to attack the rim with as much regularity, as it is more than happy to shoot mid-range jumpers (top 15 mid-range shot rate, per ShotQuality). In addition, the Aztecs are 22-0 when allowing less than 65 points, which physical teams like Providence, Creighton, and Seton Hall have done to the Huskies in conference play.

Pick: San Diego State +7.5

Mike Spector

Check out our other National Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions:

MLB Best Bets

Minnesota Twins (-126) vs. Miami Marlins (+108) | O/U 8 (-105/-115)

The Marlins are home underdogs to a 3-0 Twins team, but Minnesota’s three-game sweep of Kansas City was not all that impressive (it managed 11 runs in three games), and Miami has the pitching edge.
Miami’s Johnny Cueto has limited current Royals to a .200/.273/.319 slash line and has allowed just four extra-base hits in 70 at-bats. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s Tyler Mahle’s ERA and HR/9 rate has risen each of the last three seasons, while his K/9 rate has declined each year in that span.

Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez has hit safely in every game this season, continuing right where he left off as the American League batting champion. He has nine hits, and though just one has gone for extra bases, data suggests he could be in line for more success in the power department today.

Per Inside Edge, Arraez’s 6% whiff rate on elevated fastballs was second-best in the league last season, and his .329 average was eighth-best. Conversely, Mahle elevated his fastball 58% of the time last season, tenth-most among all starting pitchers (min. 64 IP). Arraez is 2-for-5 in his career against Mahle. While the Twins have a detailed scouting report on Arraez, as he was with the organization for the last four seasons, the second baseman will also be motivated in his first game against his former teammates.

Minnesota is just 1-7 in its last eight interleague road games, while Miami has won six of its last seven following a loss.

Pick: Marlins ML (+108)

Mike Spector

Check out our other MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions:

NHL Best Bets

Vegas Golden Knights (+114) vs. Minnesota Wild (-134) | O/U 6.5 (+114/-140)

The Golden Knights and Wild will meet again after coming off a Vegas 5-1 win on Saturday.

Vegas is now two points up in the Pacific and have three wins of their last five.

So far, Vegas has dominated this series, winning both games by a combined score of 9-2. Not many teams have been able to contain Vegas' offense, scoring the seventh-most points and having the 12th-best goal percentage. Marc-Andre Fleury started in the crease for both games, but Filip Gustavsson should get the start. He has played 20 mins against the Golden Knights this year and stopped all eight shots.

I like the under way better than any other pick. Laurent Brossoit was stellar in the last matchup against Minnesota, saving 29-of-30, and Gustavsson should keep Vegas contained.

Pick: Under 6.5 (-140)

John Supowitz

Check out our other NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions >>

Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategies - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.