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NASCAR AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway Betting Odds & Picks (2022)

by May 14, 2022
Kurt Busch

The 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season continues in the Midwest this weekend at Kansas Speedway with the AdventHealth 400. This marks the first of two visits that the series will pay the 1.5-mile oval this year. It also marks the final points-paying race before NASCAR’s annual All-Star Weekend and festivities. With a dozen races now completed in the Next Gen Car, some drivers and teams have begun to separate themselves from a performance standpoint. The AdventHealth 400 NASCAR betting odds largely reflect this ongoing trend. That being said, there is still plenty of value on the board and worthwhile NASCAR picks to consider.

The following outlines vital handicapping details and breaks down some of the best NASCAR betting picks for Sunday afternoon’s AdventHealth 400. Analysis of the top driver odds and outright winner picks are also included.

AdventHealth 400 Race Details

12th Annual AdventHealth 400
Date: Sunday, May 15, 2022
Time: 3 p.m. EST
Location: Kansas Speedway — Kansas City, KS
TV Coverage: FS1

AdventHealth 400 Handicapping Notes

The AdventHealth 400 is the first of two races that the NASCAR Cup Series will run at Kansas Speedway this season. Kansas is one of several 1.5-mile ovals that the sport visits. These intermediate tracks are easily the most prevalent type of course on the circuit. Compared to other 1.5-mile tracks, Kansas does not generate as much tire wear thanks to a recent repaving back in 2012.

When it comes to making NASCAR betting picks this weekend, handicappers should focus on backing drivers and race teams that have displayed advantages in power and raw speed. From a setup standpoint, Kansas Speedway tends to favor those drivers who can manage their car on the “loose” end of the spectrum. There are gains to be made for those drivers who can perfect aggressive corner entry and maintain their speed through the turns.

Kansas Speedway Track Stats

  • Length: 1.5 miles
  • Surface: Asphalt
  • Turns: 4
  • Banking: Turns — 17-20° (progressive); Frontstretch — 9-11° (progressive); Backstretch — 5°

Recent AdventHealth 400 Winners

  • 2021: Kyle Busch
  • 2020: Denny Hamlin
  • 2019: Brad Keselowski
  • 2018: Kevin Harvick
  • 2017: Martin Truex Jr.

AdventHealth 400 Best Bets

Top 10 Finish: Christopher Bell (+130 at FanDuel)

Good luck figuring out the NASCAR betting market pricing on Christopher Bell to finish top-10 this week! At BetMGM, one would have to lay -225 on the No. 20 car to place top-10. At DraftKings, the same prop is -125. Then, there’s FanDuel, where plus-money odds help make this one of the best AdventHealth 400 picks on the board.

Bell has quietly been one of the most consistent drivers in recent weeks. Dating back to COTA, he has finished top-10 in five of seven races. This includes each of the last two weeks. Bell came in fourth at Dover and followed it up with a sixth-place showing at Darlington.

Momentum is huge in NASCAR, like pretty much any other sport. Bell certainly comes rolling into Kansas with plenty of it, as does Toyota as a whole after a slow start to the season. Bell also has two previous top-10 finishes in just four career Cup Series starts at Kansas to go along with an Xfinity Series win back in 2017.

Race Matchup: Aric Almirola (+115 at BetMGM) vs. Erik Jones

It’s admittedly a bit difficult to understand the lopsided pricing for this driver head-to-head. Aric Almirola and Erik Jones have had very similar seasons thus far. Although Jones has been finishing better recently, the results are hardly enough to justify him being a -150 favorite this weekend. Furthermore, this same head-to-head has Jones only a -125 favorite to -105 for Almirola at DraftKings. 

Both Almirola and Jones have recorded a single top-5 result and four total top-10s. One of Almirola’s top-10 showings actually came at Las Vegas earlier in the season. He just missed on adding a fifth much result last week coming home 11th at Darlington.

Of the two, Jones does own a better average finish (15.7) than Almirola (17.8) in the last ten NASCAR Cup Series races at Kansas. However, keep in mind that most of Jones’ strong showings came while driving for a powerhouse team in Joe Gibbs Racing. He failed to finish better than 25th in either race last year with what is now Petty GMS Motorsports.

Team of Race Winner: Hendrick Motorsports (+180 at BetMGM)

Given how well the entire Hendrick Motorsports organization has been running in recent weeks, HMS is the deserving favorite to be the winning race team on Sunday. However, one could argue that there is value to be had in the +180 NASCAR betting odds.

Through 13 races, all four of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers have visited victory lane. William Byron has done so twice while Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson have one win apiece. HMS was also the class of the NASCAR Cup Series on 1.5-mile oval tracks a year ago. That theme only continued at Las Vegas earlier this season. 

As time has gone on, HMS has also appeared to be figuring out the new Next Gen Car faster than any other powerhouse team. Until another team or manufacturer can take it to Hendrick Motorsports on an intermediate track like Kansas, it’s hard to envision the AdventHealth 400 winner coming from any other garage.

NASCAR Betting Odds to Win | AdventHealth 400

The table below offers a side-by-side comparison of the NASCAR betting odds to win the Daytona 500 across three major U.S. sportsbooks. The top 25 drivers in terms of odds are included.

Driver DraftKings BetMGM FanDuel
Kyle Larson +700 +600 +700
Kyle Busch +700 +800 +700
Denny Hamlin +700 +800 +700
Chase Elliott +700 +900 +700
William Byron +1000 +900 +850
Ross Chastain +1000 +1000 +800
Martin Truex Jr. +1000 +1000 +1000
Joey Logano +1200 +1200 +1200
Ryan Blaney +1400 +1200 +1100
Tyler Reddick +1600 +1600 +1600
Alex Bowman +1600 +1400 +1300
Kevin Harvick +1800 +1600 +1800
Christopher Bell +2000 +2000 +2000
Chase Briscoe +3000 +3300 +3000
Erik Jones +3500 +3300 +3500
Kurt Busch +4000 +3300 +4000
Austin Cindric +6000 +8000 +6000
Brad Keselowski +6000 +6600 +4000
Aric Almirola +6000 +6600 +6000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +8000 +8000 +10000
Daniel Suarez +8000 +6600 +8000
Austin Dillon +8000 +6600 +8000
Justin Haley +15000 +12500 +15000
Chris Beuscher +15000 +10000 +15000
Bubba Wallace +15000 +12500 +15000

 
Favorite: Kyle Larson (+700 at DraftKings and FanDuel)

If there was ever a time to “buy low” on defending NASCAR Cup Series Champion Kyle Larson, that time is now. Engine failure at Darlington last weekend forced a No. 5 car that was arguably the best on the track to retire early. Instances in which one could bet on Larson to win a race at 7-1 odds over the past year have been rare, to say the least. That is exactly the opportunity bettors have in front of them this week.

Larson won the fall playoff race at Kansas Speedway last year. That victory is part of an 11.8 average finish in his last eight starts at the Midwestern track. That average really should look a whole lot better if not for NASCAR’s caution flag conundrum in the spring race at Kansas last year. Larson was on his way to a dominant victory only to get bumped on the ensuing restart. Win No. 2 of the season is a real possibility for Larson this weekend.

Value Bet: William Byron (+1000 at DraftKings)

After he was on the wrong end of a dramatic finish to last week’s race at Darlington, William Byron will be seeking redemption in the AdventHealth 400. In eight previous Cup Series starts at Kansas, Byron has an average finish of 16.1. That average hardly does his recent stats at the track justice.

Dating back to the fall race in 2019, Byron has found himself among the top-10 finishers in every NASCAR Cup Series event held at Kansas, a span of five races. Few other drivers can claim that kind of consistency. Byron has one previous top-5 and was also sixth here last fall. He also already has two wins and four top-5 finishes already this year. The No. 24 has been one of the fastest cars on track more often than not this season and can be had at an enticing double-digit outright price this weekend.

Longshot Hopeful: Kurt Busch (+4000 at DraftKings and FanDuel)

It took one crash to take out both of the 23XI Racing cars last weekend at Darlington. The resulting DNFs were hardly indicative of how well both Kurt Busch and Bubba Wallace were running prior to the incident. Over the past few weeks, the Toyota camp as a whole has been getting stronger. This manufacturer trend combined with Busch’s strong history at Kansas is enough to make him worth a look as a 40-1 NASCAR betting longshot.

Although it has been a rough last few weeks for the elder Busch brother, Kansas is a track where Kurt has run well in the past. He finished fourth as recently as last fall and owns a 12.9 average finish over his last ten starts. Six of those starts saw Busch finish inside the top-10 and three were top-5 showings.


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Motorsports, NASCAR