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NASCAR Betting Picks for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway (2021)

by October 23, 2021

The second of three races in the NASCAR Cup Series Round of 8 is set for this Sunday at Kansas Speedway. The 21st annual Hollywood Casino 400 will be run at a track quite comparable to the one that hosted last weekend’s race, Texas Motor Speedway. Kyle Larson dominated last weekend to lock up his spot in NASCAR’s Championship 4. With several other playoff drivers in need of premium points and/or an outright win to advance, will anyone be able to catch the No. 5 car at Kansas? 

The following outlines some of the best NASCAR betting picks for Sunday afternoon’s Hollywood Casino 400. Analysis of the top odds and picks to win outright is also included.

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Hollywood Casino 400 Best Bets

The following sections detail the top NASCAR betting picks for Sunday’s race at Kansas Speedway.

Top 5 Finish: Tyler Reddick (+300 at BetMGM)
Since the start of the Round of 12 (and excluding Talladega), Tyler Reddick has had top-5 speed every single week. Unfortunately, late-race restarts and setbacks have prevented him from getting more than a single top-5 finish. That came in the form of a runner-up at the Charlotte ROVAL two weeks ago. Despite having a great season and qualifying for the playoffs for the first time, Reddick remains winless at the Cup Series level. With just three races left and knowing the locations of the final two, this week’s Hollywood Casino 400 serves as Reddick’s best chance to score that first career victory in 2021.

Driving the No. 8 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing has made Reddick a contender at all tracks where NASCAR utilizes the 550-horsepower package this season. He finished seventh at Kansas back in the spring and enters the weekend with two top-10s in four previous Cup Series starts here. However, this play is much more about Reddick’s recent performances than any historical statistics. With three top-10 runs in the last four races, he is as fast as any remaining championship drivers. Winning outright is a stretch, but a top-5 is very attainable for this team. It’s hard to pass up 3-1 NASCAR betting odds as well.

Best Finish in Group A: Kyle Busch (+260 at DraftKings)
Our second pick is a play on the winner of the spring race at Kansas earlier this year. It took a questionable caution flag from NASCAR to produce it, but Kyle Busch capitalized to win on his birthday. That victory marked the fourth top-5 finish in the last six races at the track for the No. 18 team. Busch ran well last week at Texas, finishing eighth. He is the second choice in Group A based on the NASCAR betting odds. With points being critical to his hopes of reaching the Championship 4, Busch figures to go out and run very well this weekend.

Like any other week, Group A is a stacked field, to say the least. Busch finds himself up against JGR teammate Denny Hamlin (+250), reigning NASCAR Cup Series Champion Chase Elliott (+280), and the driver currently second in the standings, Ryan Blaney (+300). While winning this four-man horserace won’t be easy, Busch does have the best average finish of the bunch over the last ten Kansas races. While he has yet to win a playoff race, Busch has arguably been the most consistent of this group. Furthermore, he was the only one in brother Kurt’s zip code in the most recent race at Atlanta, arguably the most comparable track to Kansas Speedway on the circuit. 

Best Finish in Group E: Daniel Suarez (+240 at DraftKings)
Rounding out this week’s best NASCAR betting picks is a play on Daniel Suarez to win Group E. Not only was the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Team impressive in scoring a top-10 result at Texas last week, but they also ran well here at Kansas back in the spring. Suarez finished 11th in that event. Chevrolet has been the manufacturer to beat on the 1.5-mile ovals this season. With pseudo RCR teammate Tyler Reddick also displaying plenty of speed in recent weeks, equipment should be no issue for Suarez in the Hollywood Casino 400.

Joining Suarez in Group E this week are a trio of Ford drivers. Suarez is the NASCAR betting favorite to win the four-man race that also includes Chase Briscoe (+260), Chris Buescher (+280), and Aric Almirola (+280). Briscoe was the only one of the three Fords to show much speed on the intermediate track at Texas last weekend. That was a revelation for Stewart-Haas Racing, as they have struggled mightily running the 550-horsepower package. Not only does Suarez come in with momentum following his top-10 but he has the clear manufacturer advantage when it comes to running this package. While Buescher actually finished just ahead of Suarez back in the spring race, the No. 17 team has not been running nearly as well as they were earlier in the season. Look for the No. 99 to make a run at back-to-back top-10s on Sunday.

NASCAR Betting Odds to Win | Kansas

The table below offers a comparison of the NASCAR betting odds to win the Hollywood Casino 400 across three major U.S. sportsbooks. The top 20 drivers in terms of odds are included.

Favorite: Kyle Larson (+260 at FanDuel)
After back-to-back wins in each of the last two weeks, Kyle Larson now has seven outright victories on the 2021 season. He has been the cream of the crop all year long. It’s no surprise to see the NASCAR betting odds to win continue to shrink in his favor. While Larson is now locked into the Championship 4, he still figures to go out and be aggressive on Sunday. After all, another win could take away a spot in the final four from a fellow playoff contender.

Larson dominated both the NASCAR All-Star Race and last weekend’s event at Texas. While he didn’t win the spring race at Kansas earlier this year, he controlled the vast majority of it. If not for a questionable late-race caution, Larson would have cruised to victory lane. Redemption for that close call only adds fuel to a blazing hot fire this weekend.

Value Bet: William Byron (+1200 FanDuel)
Aside from Kyle Larson, William Byron was the car to beat last weekend at Texas. He has run well on the 1.5-mile tracks all season. If not for a series of unfortunate mishaps in the Round of 12, Byron would likely be racing for a spot in the next round himself. Instead, one of the most consistent drivers this season has a chance to play spoiler. The 550-horsepower package has been extremely kind to the entire Hendrick Motorsports garage this season. Last week served as further proof of this. Byron has finished top-10 in each of his last four races at Kansas. The No. 24 camp would undoubtedly love to score one more victory to help build momentum for next season.

Longshot Hopeful: Kevin Harvick (+2200 at FanDuel)
Speaking of non-playoff drivers who are out to make a statement down the stretch of the season, Kevin Harvick impressed last week with a top-5 showing. Stewart-Haas Racing has struggled to keep up when running the 550-horsepower package this year. Harvick and crew chief Rodney Childers tried some different things at Texas last week. The changes certainly seemed to pay off. SHR teammate Chase Briscoe also had a strong run. Add in the fact that Harvick has the best average finish over the last ten Kansas races of any driver (5.5) and the No. 4 car is certainly capable of cashing as a longshot outright pick.

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.

Motorsports, NASCAR