NBA First Basket Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Saturday (4/1)

Rudy Gobert scores first in the Timberwolves' game last night, notching us another positive day. With the eyes of the basketball world on Houston for the Final Four, the NBA has scheduled only two games for Saturday. I'll dive into both with plays that I like to cash a First Basket.

Season to Date: 12-34-4, +5.13 units

NBA First Basket Cheat Sheet: View advice for today's best bets >>

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:

Saturday’s Best First Basket Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat

Saturday's matchup between Dallas and Miami has plenty of playoff implications as both are fighting for positioning in their respective conference Play-In tournament standings.

Dallas has been in a state of turmoil for much of the season as things are starting to slip away. One aspect of the game that has alluded them is First Basket props, not that there is really any correlation with actual wins. They've been particularly bad at scoring first field goals at under a 40% rate. This is in part due to a bad success rate on opening tips. Against an above average jump ball player in Bam Adebayo, the edge against Dallas is stronger.

I'm going to target Adebayo to score first in this game. Dallas has given up first field goals to opposing big men at a rate of over 60% on the season. That is not an edge I can ignore. With two games on the schedule, Bam Adebayo is the strongest play on the board.

Pick: 0.25u on Bam Adebayo (+430)

Los Angeles Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans

Both of these teams are finding themselves playing some of their best basketball as we reach the end of the regular season. A trip to the Play-In tournament that seemed rocky for New Orleans has begun to feel a lot more secure in recent games. They should look to take charge early.

Both teams win the opening tip at around league average, 50%, but New Orleans has a solid 57% to 44% edge when it comes to scoring first field goals. With this data in mind and Los Angeles on the second night of a back-to-back against a more desperate team, I am targeting Pelicans for First Basket.

Jonas Valanciunas is the first player I'm targeting. He leads New Orleans in First Baskets on the season and has a good matchup against a Clipper team that gives up more first field goals to opposing centers than any other position.

Brandon Ingram is another player I'm targeting. He's been New Orleans leading scorer and his play of late has elevated the Pelicans. The Clippers give up a fair amount of first field goals to opposing wings. Ingram is able to score from anywhere on the court and is always a threat on offense.

With a small Saturday slate it can be tough to find solid plays. This game provides us two really good options and I'm going to sprinkle a little on both.

Pick: 0.25u on Jonas Valanciunas (+390), 0.25u on Brandon Ingram (+500)

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