NBA on TNT Best Bets & Picks: Tuesday (3/28)

NBA on TNT is back for another two-game slate of action. It kicks off with the Heat against the Raptors and ends with the Pelicans vs. the Warriors. Let’s take a look at our top picks and predictions for Tuesday’s NBA on TNT slate of games.

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NBA on TNT Top Predictions & Picks

Heat vs. Raptors Picks & Predictions

Game Picks

The Miami Heat are looking to earn the six-seed in the East. They’ll have to get by the Brooklyn Nets in the standings.

Miami hasn’t been consistent on the offensive end this season. The Heat have scored just 113 points per 100 possessions while shooting an effective field goal percentage of 52.8%. But the Raptors allow teams to shoot a 56.9% effective field goal percentage. Therefore, Miami might get some better looks from the field tonight.

The Heat could turn the ball over at a high rate and won’t earn a ton of offensive rebounds. But Miami will find its way to the foul line to add a bunch of freebies.

On the other hand, the Raptors have been much better offensively. The team has turned the ball over just 12.2% of the time and has earned 30.4% of offensive rebounds. Toronto will be active on the glass, but the Heat still allow only 25.5% of offensive rebounds. Miami has limited foul shooting and has given up just 113.4 points per 100 possessions. The Heat are also known for forcing a high amount of turnovers. It’ll be harder against the Raptors, but Miami should at least limit the Raptors from earning a bunch of second chances.

Let’s back the Heat to take care of business.

Bet: Heat +3 (-110)

Player Prop Bet Picks

Pelicans vs. Warriors Picks & Predictions

Game Picks

The Warriors and Pelicans are fighting for a spot in the Western Conference Playoffs. This game matters - a lot.

The Pelicans should be aggressive enough to get to the foul line at a high rate. But the offense has only scored 114.9 points per 100 possessions while shooting an effective field goal percentage below 55%. Recently, the Pelicans have been on a tear. They’ve won six-straight games.

However, they’ve also faced teams like the Rockets, Spurs, Hornets and Blazers. So it’s maybe not as impressive.

Golden State couldn’t score against Minnesota in its last game. But the offense is still better than New Orleans. The Warriors have shot an effective field goal percentage of 57.1%, third-best in the NBA. Golden State won’t be effective on the glass and usually doesn’t get to the foul line at a high rate. But at home, with Jordan Poole and Draymond Green likely to play, I’ll back the Warriors to get a double-digit win over the Pelicans.

Bet: Warriors -8.5 (-110)

Same Game Parlay Picks

- Leg 1: Pelicans +8.5 (-110)
- Leg 2: Trey Murphy o2.5 Threes (-150)
- Leg 3: Jonas Valanciunas o11.5 Rebounds (-115)

New Orleans has been a really strong bet lately. They’re 7-3 SU and ATS over their past 10 games and sixth in the NBA in Net Rating over this same span. The Warriors are a scary team to fade on their home floor, but they’ve shown weakness as recently as Sunday vs. the Timberwolves (a 99-96 loss), and nearly dropped one to a Philly team sans James Harden on Friday. This is too big of a number, given how important the matchup is, and the gap between these two teams is not so large.

The Warriors aren’t an especially stout defensive team, and their Guards are particularly weak in this aspect. The team affords opponents the eighth most three-point attempts in the NBA in the month of March, and if the shot is falling for Murphy, this number should be crossed with ease. Over Murphy’s last eight games, he is attempting an average of 9.625 threes per game and would have crossed this number in each game but last night’s.

This number is far too low for a guy who just tallied 21 boards in Portland and is averaging 16.167 rebounds per game over his last six games played. Further, the Warriors don’t have a lot of size on the interior, making this a great matchup for Valanciunas.

Parlay Odds: +495

Player Prop Bet Picks

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