After a wild Game 1 in the Eastern Conference Finals, there’s plenty of value on the board for Game 2. Can the Cavaliers escape New York and tie the series, or do the Knicks have all the momentum to win Game 2? Here are a few Market Based EV NBA picks for tonight’s game. Let’s grab some value.
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Thursday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Mikal Bridges Over 3.5 Rebounds (+133 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +120
- Market EV: +6%
Mikal Bridges has added at least four rebounds in back-to-back games, including five rebounds against the Cavaliers in Game 1. He’s had at least eight rebound chances in four straight games, too.
Yet, DraftKings Sportsbook is giving us +133 odds for Bridges to add at least four rebounds. That’s insane value, especially since he’s hit this line in three of his last five games and has a good history with this prop against Cleveland in his career. This 6% positive-expected-value play is one of the best out there.
Jalen Brunson Under 2.5 Rebounds (+128 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +123
- Market EV: +2%
Jalen Brunson has added at least four rebounds in three straight games. However, he’s averaged just 6.3 rebound chances per game over the last 10 games, and has three games with two or fewer rebounds in his last six games.
You can find Brunson to go under 2.5 rebounds at +128 on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the fair value is +123. That’s a 2% positive expected value. While that doesn’t feel like much, if you stack up bets like this, you’ll start seeing legitimate profit over the long term.
Josh Hart Over 4.5 Assists (+115 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: +111
- Market EV: +2%
Here’s another plus-money prop. Josh Hart has added at least five assists in zero of his last four games. But he’s had many games with 10+ potential assists over the last 10 games. Hart didn’t finish Game 1 after the Knicks got a spark from Landry Shamet late in the game. But he figures to be a big asset down the stretch for the Knicks.
Hart has averaged 8.7 potential assists in his last nine games against the Cavaliers. Let’s give Hart a chance at +115 odds on BetMGM to go over on his assists prop. The fair value is +111.
