If you’re looking for some value NBA picks for tonight’s Eastern Conference Finals Game 3 matchup, you’ve come to the right place! Here are a few Market-based EV NBA picks for tonight’s game. Thankfully, there’s plenty of value on the board right now.
Follow along and consider using the Market Based EV tool to add even more bets for Saturday, May 23rd.
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Saturday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated | Odds courtesy of BetMGM
James Harden Over 4.5 Rebounds (+105)
- Fair Value: -108
- Market EV: +6%
James Harden earned six rebounds on seven rebound chances in Game 2 of this series. Over the last five games, that was the fewest amount of rebound chances he’s recorded. Harden has added at least seven rebound chances in each of his last five games and has had three games with at least 10 rebound chances during that stretch.
Right now, you can bet on Harden to grab at least five rebounds at +105 odds on BetMGM. This is a prop he’s hit in seven of his last 10 games. It’s a 6% positive-expected-value play, the highest percentage on the board. Get this bet if it’s still there.
Mitchell Robinson Over 4.5 Points (+125)
- Fair Value: +113
- Market EV: +5%
Mitchell Robinson has scored exactly four points in each of his first two games against the Cavaliers. Ultimately, when he comes into the game, the Cavaliers foul him immediately. He’s not a good free-throw shooter, but he’ll have plenty of opportunities to SCORE at least five points.
With those opportunities, it’s a solid bet to take Mitchell Robinson at +125 odds to score at least five points. The fair value is +113, and the market expected value is currently 5%. It’s another strong play that every bettor should consider.
Dean Wade Over 3.5 Rebounds (-120)
- Fair Value: -126
- Market EV: +2%
Dean Wade has accumulated at least four rebounds in six of his last 10 games. He’s been so consistent that he’s also added at least four rebounds in 60% of his last 20 games.
Wade has also earned at least seven rebound chances in five of his last six games and is sitting at -120 to add at least four rebounds at BetMGM. The fair value is -126; it’s clear that the -120 odds are a really good value. If you can stack up even 2% plays, you should see more long-term success.
