The final two spots in the conference finals of the NBA playoffs are up for grabs with two Game 6 matchups on Friday night. The Cavaliers look to secure their first Eastern Conference Finals appearance since 2018, while the Spurs try to reach the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2017. Let's take a look at both matchups and dive into our top NBA picks.
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Friday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers enter a potential clinching Game 6 at home after three consecutive wins in the series. After improving their home postseason record to 6-0, they finally broke through in Game 5 and beat the Pistons for their first road win in six tries. It was a late flurry to send the game to overtime on a 9-0 run and outlast Detroit in the extra period.
The Pistons now find themselves backed into a corner, a position they've found themselves in quite a bit this postseason. Detroit has faced elimination three times in these playoffs and has gone 3-0 straight up (SU) and 2-1 against the spread (ATS), outplaying the spread by an average of 6.5 points per game. Unlike the three first-round contests, they'll be an underdog on Friday night.
A key component of this game will be the availability of Detroit's Duncan Robinson. He's been one of the few consistent outside shooters for Detroit all season and in the playoffs. His performances directly correlate with wins.
In games where Robinson scores 12+ points, Detroit is 43-7. The Pistons missed his shooting and floor spacing in Game 5. They shot only 33% from deep and, for the first time in the series, lost the rebounding battle.
Regardless of Robinson's health, Detroit needs to find ways to get to the free-throw line. They were in the top five all year in free-throw rate, but a lack of aggression at the rim in the last three games has created a massive disparity between Detroit and Cleveland at the charity stripe.
It should be a focus for them to game-plan to attack the Cleveland bigs and get them in foul trouble, as they did in the first two games of the series.
The atmosphere will be hostile in Cleveland, but Detroit has been in this position before. They should show poise and get back to what they do best: Slow the game down, get to the rim, create contact and play elite defense. Cleveland fans will be looking to celebrate on Friday night, but Detroit will do everything in its power to spoil the party and force a Game 7.
Pick: Under 209.5 Points (-106) & Pistons +3.5 (-104)
San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves
The Spurs are just one win away from sending the next generation of great Spurs teams to the Western Conference Finals. Victor Wembanyama and company have been fantastic in this series, especially on the defensive end, holding Minnesota to just 101 points per game (PPG) in the games Wembanyama has played in this series.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, he'll be in the lineup tonight. After a hot finish in Game 1 for the Timberwolves, they've yet to eclipse 40% shooting from the floor in games Wembanyama finishes. I don't foresee Friday night's game being any different.
Games 3 and 4 in Minnesota closed with the Spurs as -5.5 favorites in both contests. These games were split, but one included the game in which Wembanyama was ejected in the first half. For some reason, this spread is only 4.5 in San Antonio's favor.
There's plenty of reason for the Spurs to win this game and cover. Minnesota has shown little to no ability to score on this top-three-rated defense when they're at full strength.
Minnesota has needed poor three-point shooting performances from the Spurs to get their wins in this series. As a team that finished ranked in the top half of the league but improved significantly throughout the season, it's unlikely we see that happen again here.
San Antonio is the better team, and a shorthanded Timberwolves team fought valiantly to force this series to six games. However, the road stops here as the next generation of stars in San Antonio moves on to their first Western Conference Finals with a decisive win.
Pick: Spurs -4.5 (-118)
