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NBA Play of the Day for December 2nd, 2019

by December 2, 2019

The Sacramento Kings are set to host the Chicago Bulls in tonight’s late game. These two teams already making plans for the NBA’s draft lottery, but are actually two of the most exciting young teams in the league. Both squads seem at least a year away, but have built interesting cores that should soon be able to transform their clubs into perennial playoff teams.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -5 on the Sacramento Kings. The consensus over/under total opened at 211 points. The point spread has held steady at -5. The over/under total has seen a slight increase to 212.
  • Current Line: Sacramento -5
  • O/U: 212
  • Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California 
  • Start Time:10:00 PM EST, Monday, December 2nd
  • Last Meeting: Sacramento defeated Chicago 129-102 – March 17, 2019

Overview

The 6-14 Chicago Bulls have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, and have no marquee win to speak of. Zach LaVine has had his moments in the sun, but the team around him, despite some intriguing individual talent, is just not strong enough for them to be anything but a team that can win against fellow bad teams, and hopefully pull off some upsets as the season progresses. They have been so poor that a win over a Sacramento Kings team without Bagley or Fox may actually represent their standout victory of the young season.

The 8-10 Sacramento Kings have been one of the most perplexing teams in the league. No Marvin Bagley, No De’Aaron Fox? No problem. The upstart Kings were still able to upset the Denver Nuggets while extremely short-handed. They have multiple marquee wins this season including against the aforementioned Nuggets, the Portland Trailblazers, the Utah Jazz, and the Boston Celtics. They have covered the spread in five straight contests and will look set to make it six tonight against a worn-out Chicago Bulls team that has lost the first two games of their three-game road trip.  

Trends 

  • The favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four contests played between these two teams.
  • Sacramento is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four contests against Chicago.
  • Under is 9-3 in the last 12 contests played between these two teams.
  • Chicago is 8-1 ATS on the season. 
  • Chicago is 4-6 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Sacramento is 12-6 ATS on the season. 
  • Sacramento is 5-3 ATS at home this season.
  • Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests.
  • Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests played on two days of rest.
  • Chicago is 6-15-2 ATS in their last 23 contests against the Pacific division. 
  • Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in their last five home contests. 
  • Sacramento is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 contests. 
  • Sacramento is 7-0 ATS in their last seven contests played on one day of rest.
  • Under is 4-0 in Chicago’s last four contests against the Western Conference. 
  • Under is 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven contests. 
  • Over is 16-5 in Chicago’s last 21 road contests against teams with winning home records. 
  • Under is 4-1 in Sacramento’s last five home contests.
  • Under is 5-2 in Sacramento’s last seven contests against the Central division.
  • Under is 4-0 in Sacramento’s last four contests following a win ATS.

Prop Bets

Sacramento first half -3 (-115)
With Sacramento being our pick for the full game (it feels weird writing that), they are also our pick for the first half. First-quarter was also considered, but it is usually the second quarter when teams start to separate as both squads will have to deploy some of their bench options to give their starters rest. The Kings are likely to win this contest by seven or more points and should be good for at least a three-point halftime lead. They have had poor first-half performances against some of the better teams in the league, but the Bulls are certainly not that. They should be able to overcome the slow starts that have been a theme in their last three contests against a Bulls team that has nowhere near the same firepower as their last three opponents in the Celtics, 76ers, and Nuggets. Much like the full game spread, this is a line one should lock in right away at DraftKings due to the risk of the full game number rising, and increasing the first-half spread along with it. 

Harrison Barnes over 16.5 points (-110)
Harrison Barnes has stepped up over the Kings last four contests and is averaging a sublime 22.5 points per game. Buddy Hield has been struggling, and with De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley both out, it has been up to the now veteran Barnes to shoulder the scoring load for the Kings. The number here was set based on his scoring average for the season of 16.7 points. Including a 30 point outburst against the Denver Nuggets, he has cleared the 16.5 total in four of his last five contests. He is prone to bad shooting nights, but as long as he is aggressive in the paint, he will ensure that he is able to clear the posted total tonight against the Chicago Bulls.

Bottom Line

The -5 consensus point spread is a larger spread than one would like when laying action on a team like Sacramento. This is especially true when you consider that both Marvin Bagley and De’Aaron Fox will miss tonight’s contest. With that being said, this contest and its line are still the standout plays of the day. The Kings have been far superior to the Chicago Bulls this season, and have been one of the more frustrating teams in the league to bet against. They just always seem to find a way to cover when you least expect it. The Kings are 12-5 against the spread on the season, have covered in five straight contests, and are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 contests. De’Aaron Fox has been sidelined for nine of those 10 contests. Marvin Bagley has been injured for all 10. The consensus point spread for this contest is bound to see some movement with the sharps and casuals all siding with the Kings, as only loyal Bulls money coming in has prevented it from jumping overnight. Lock in the -5 at DraftKings before this line hits -5.5 or -6 prior to game time. 

Pick: Sacramento Kings -5 (-112)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.