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NBA Play of the Day for March 9th, 2020

by March 9, 2020

The Charlotte Hornets are set to take on the Atlanta Hawks on a quiet three-game night. Both of these teams are already making plans for the NBA Draft, but they will have to face each other three times over the next four weeks before doing so. The consensus point spread for this contest opened at a surprising -6 on the Atlanta Hawks, and the higher than expected spread made Charlotte the initial lean. However, the line has moved to -4.5, creating potential value on both sides. Let’s dig in.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -6 on the Atlanta Hawks. The consensus over/under total opened at 225 points. The point spread has dropped to -4.5. The over/under total has dropped to 224.5.
  • Current Line: Atlanta -4.5
  • O/U: 224.5
  • Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
  • Start Time: 7:30 PM EST, Monday, March 9th
  • Last Meeting: Atlanta defeated Charlotte 122-107 – December 8th, 2019

Overview

The Charlotte Hornets sit at 22-41 on the season. They are currently in 10th place in the Eastern Conference and are 6.5 games back of the 29-35 Orlando Magic for eighth place. The Hornets have won six of their last 12 contests but have lost three of their last four. Devonte’ Graham has been terrific for the Hornets, and he gives the team some hope for their post-Kemba Walker future. Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington have also flashed their talent this season. Charlotte has a long way to go, but they have some interesting pieces to work with. They will be hoping for some ping pong ball luck for the 2020 NBA Draft as there are some intriguing point guards expected to be selected in the top half of the lottery. Charlotte will be looking to even the season series against Atlanta with a win tonight. 

The Atlanta Hawks are 19-46 on the season, and they currently sit in last place in the Eastern Conference. They have lost three straight games, but are 4-5 since the All-Star break with marquee victories over the Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat. The Hawks have some highly intriguing talent, led by the NBA’s number fourth-leading scorer in Trae Young. Young has been a dynamo with the ball in his hands, but he continues to be too inefficient to take the Hawks to the next level by himself. John Collins has been terrific since February, as he has averaged 24.9 points with over 10 rebounds per game, giving the Hawks a legitimate number two option. They added both De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish in the lottery of the 2019 NBA Draft, and they are headed there again to grab yet another talented piece. This team is going to be very interesting when they add their 2020 draft pick and Clint Capela to the court next season. Atlanta won the opening game of this series, and they will look to take advantage of the home court to go up 2-0 in the season series. 

Trends

  • Charlotte is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 contests against Atlanta. 
  • Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams. 
  • Charlotte is 33-30 ATS on the season.
  • Charlotte is 17-15 ATS on the road this season.
  • Atlanta is 29-35-1 ATS on the season.
  • Atlanta is 19-12-1 ATS at home this season.
  • Charlotte is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 contests.
  • Charlotte is 6-0 ATS in their last six contests.
  • Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in their last five road contests.
  • Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests against teams with a losing record. 
  • Atlanta is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 contests.
  • Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests.
  • Atlanta is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine contests against teams with a losing record.
  • Atlanta is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home contests. 
  • Over is 6-2 in Charlotte’s last eight contests against teams with losing records.
  • Under is 5-0 in Charlotte’s last five road contests. 
  • Under is 9-2 in Charlotte’s last 11 contests.
  • Under is 9-2 in Charlotte’s last 11 contests as an underdog.
  • Over is 14-3 in Atlanta’s last 17 home contests.
  • Over is 17-8 in Atlanta’s last 25 contests. 
  • Over is 4-0 in Atlanta’s last four contests against teams with losing records. 
  • Over is 7-0 in Atlanta’s last seven home contests against teams with a road winning percentage below .400.

Prop Bets

John Collins over 21.5 points (-122)
John Collins has been rolling since the start of February, a time period in which he has scored 24.9 points per game, and he has looked like one of the best young bigs in the NBA in the process. Collins has put up 24 points in his nine games since the All-Star break. He has scored 22 or more points in 13 of his last 16 contests, and he’s a great bet to do that again tonight. Charlotte has a hard time stopping opponents, and they have the ninth-worst percentage-based defense in the league (.499). Collins should comfortably clear the 21.5 total, but there is a danger that this line rises before game time. Lock the 21.5 in at FanDuel before that happens. 

Bottom Line

The consensus point spread for this contest opened at +6 on the Charlotte Hornets. The sharps pounced all over that number, quickly dropping the spread to the +4.5 it currently sits at. Atlanta won the first game of this series by 15 points, and they may now actually be the better value since the spread has changed. The Hawks have been poor against the spread recently, but they have been strong at home. They are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home contests. Charlotte has been excellent against the spread recently. They have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 contests. Despite their records, Atlanta is the better team here and should be able to pull out a home victory. While 4.5 points will be tough, Atlanta is still the preferred play at the current number. The point spread may move throughout the day, so lock in the -4.5 at -110 at FanDuel before the line changes. 

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Pick: Atlanta Hawks -4.5 (-110)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.

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