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NBA Play of the Day for November 27th, 2019

by November 27, 2019

The 6-12 Portland Trail Blazers will be hosting the 6-10 Oklahoma City Thunder in a battle of two teams trying to get right. Portland is trying to regain confidence and push their way back into the conversation of one of the Western Conference’s best. The Thunder are simply looking to make a push for more wins.

Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -3 on the Portland Trail Blazers. The consensus over/under total opened at 220 points. The point spread has held steady at -3. The over/under total has seen a small increase to 221. 
  • Current Line: Portland -3
  • O/U: 221
  • Location: Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
  • Start Time: 10:00 PM EST, Wednesday, November 27th
  • Last Meeting: Portland defeated Oklahoma City 102-99 – October 30, 2019

Overview 

The 6-10 Oklahoma City Thunder were not expected to be very good this season after shipping Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers, and Russell Westbrook to the Houston Rockets, but have been able to hold their own against non-playoff teams. Their marquee win of the season came in an overtime victory against a strong and healthy Philadelphia 76ers team. Expected to go into sell mode as soon as two weeks from now, the Thunder’s season may quickly go off the rails. They are likely saddled with Chris Paul for the next two seasons but are rumored to be dangling Steven Adams in trade talks. Things are going to get much worse before they get better for the Thunder’s fan base, who should already be looking ahead to and scouting the 2020 NBA Draft.

With 13 road games in their first 18 contests, the early season schedule has not been kind to the Portland Trail Blazers. They have dealt with injuries, but also played poorly enough for the team to go out and sign street free agent Carmelo Anthony. Anthony had a clock turning 25 point performance for the Blazers against the Bulls, and continues to take enough shots to make an impact even with Damian Lillard and Hassan Whiteside both back in the lineup. At 6-12, Portland will be looking to reel off their second consecutive win. They still have their aspirations set on making the playoffs, and there is enough season left for them to get back in position. Portland will have to win what are supposed to be the easy victories against teams like the Thunder if they are to meet that goal. 

Trends 

  • Portland is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests against Oklahoma City. 
  • Under is 5-2 in Oklahoma City’s last seven contests played in Portland. 
  • Oklahoma City is 10-6 ATS on the season. 
  • Oklahoma City is 4-3 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Portland is 8-9 ATS on the season.
  • Portland is 1-3 ATS at home this season. 
  • Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests. 
  • Oklahoma City is 7-1 ATS in their last eight contests following a loss ATS.
  • Oklahoma City is 0-4 ATS in their last four contests played on one day of rest. 
  • Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests following a straight-up win.
  • Portland is 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven home contests. 
  • Portland is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests against the Western Conference. 
  • Portland is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four contests following a win ATS. 
  • Portland is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home contests against teams with a road winning percentage below .400.
  • Under is 5-2 in Oklahoma City’s last seven Wednesday contests. 
  • Under is 5-2 in Oklahoma City’s last seven contests against the Northwest division. 
  • Under is 7-3 in Oklahoma City’s last 10 contests played on one day of rest. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Oklahoma City’s last five contests against teams with losing home records. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Portland’s last five contests following a straight-up win. 
  • Under is 9-2 in Portland’s last 11 contests against teams with a losing record. 
  • Under is 5-1 in Portland’s last six home contests following a road trip of seven days or more.
  • Over is 23-7-1 in Portland’s last 31 home contests. 

Prop Bets 

Portland first half -1.5 (-104)
Portland led 49-44 at halftime in their contest against the Thunder on October 30th, and appear poised to take a lead into halftime once again tonight. Of course, a poor shooting night from high volume shooters could decrease the win probability of this prop, but apples to apples, the Blazers are the far superior team in this contest and should be able to play like it with three players with all-star level talent on their roster. This is a one-unit play as the Blazers have shown the propensity to crumble to less talented teams, but this is precisely why they brought in some extra scoring punch via former MVP candidate Carmelo Anthony. Lock this one in at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Damian Lillard over 7.5 assists (-106)
While his scoring has been way down since the arrival of Carmelo, Lillard is averaging 10 assists per game since Anthony joined the team. They have played just two games together, but Lillard had been on the decline in the scoring department even before that. Lillard points under would be an attractive play, but Vegas is no fool and set today’s over/under at a very sharp 23.5 points. A line just high enough to attract over action from the public, while attracting under action from the sharps. Under appears to be the play there, but this assist player prop has more value due to the far superior win probability. Lillard has averaged over eight assists in three straight contests and should continue to boost his 7.5 assists per game average as long as McCollum, Anthony, and Whiteside are all healthy. Lock it in as a one unit play.

Bottom Line 

Finding this line at -2.5 the aggressive FanDuel appears to be an excellent value. The consensus point spread for this contest still sits at -3, and even sits at -3.5 at one book, so this is a line we should be all over. The Trail Blazers won by three points against the Thunder early in the season, and have a chance to win by five or more now that they will be playing at home with increased firepower. This is not a contest to dwell on. Portland is the better team that is benefiting from poor recent form, and an atrocious home record both straight up against the spread. Take Portland and the value line at FanDuel.

Pick: Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 (-110)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.