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NBA Play of the Day for November 8th, 2019

by November 8, 2019

Today’s NBA play of the day features two teams with designs on no less than the Conference Finals. Philadelphia and Denver were both ousted in the semi-finals last year and will be looking to go deeper into the playoffs this season. Both teams sit at a rock-solid 5-2 on the season but will have a tough test in trying to secure their sixth win. Undoubtedly the marquee matchup of a loaded Friday slate, this is going to be an exciting contest to take in. Let’s dig in. 

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -5.5 on Denver. The over/under total opened at 210.5 points. The point spread has held steady at -5.5. The consensus over/under has held steady at 210.5 due to being off the board at the majority of the books until this morning. 
  • Current Line: Denver -5.5
  • O/U: 210.5
  • Location: Pepsi Center, Denver, Colorado
  • Start Time: 9:00 PM EST, Friday, November 8th
  • Last Meeting: Philadelphia defeated Denver 117-110 February 8, 2019

Overview 

The Philadelphia 76ers are a healthy 5-2 on the season. The Sixers just welcomed Joel Embiid from his two-game, fight related suspension, but appear to have lost Ben Simmons for the next few contests with a sprained AC joint. Philadelphia has the talent and depth to survive a Simmons injury but will have a tough test doing so against a strong Denver Nuggets team. This is a team that has designs on a deep postseason run, so being able to weather injuries over a grueling regular season will be critical. 

After two straight disappointing losses, the Denver Nuggets have reeled off two wins in a row. They will have a much tougher test tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers. Nikola Jokic versus Joel Embiid is always a sight to behold, and tonight’s contest promises the same fireworks. The Nuggets are 5-2 on the season and will be looking to take advantage of a Sixers team that is expected to be without all-star Ben Simmons. Gary Harris, who was hurt in Tuesday’s contest, is expected back tonight and should help propel the Nuggets to a victory. 

Trends 

  • Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 contests in Denver. 
  • Philadelphia is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 contests against Denver. 
  • The road team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 contests between these two teams. 
  • Philadelphia is 4-2-1 ATS on the season.
  • Philadelphia is 2-2 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Denver is 3-3-1 ATS on the season. 
  • Denver is 1-2 ATS at home this season. 
  • Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in their last eight contests following a straight-up loss. 
  • Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Philadelphia is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine contests. 
  • Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday contests. 
  • Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five Friday contests. 
  • Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five home contests against teams with winning road records. 
  • Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five contests against the Eastern Conference. 
  • Denver is 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests following a win ATS. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Philadelphia’s last five road contests. 
  • Under is 7-2 in Philadelphia’s last nine contests following a win ATS. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Philadelphia’s last five contests against the Western Conference. 
  • Over is 8-3 in Philadelphia’s last 11 contests following a straight-up loss. 
  • Under is 10-1 in Denver’s last 11 contests against the Eastern Conference. 
  • Under is 6-2  in Denver’s last eight contests. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Denver’s last five home contests against teams with a winning road record. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Denver’s last five contests following a win ATS. 

Prop Bets 

Jamal Murray over 19.5 points (-106)
The juice suggests that the early action has actually come in on the under for this player prop at FanDuel. Murray has cleared this total in two of his last three but in just three of his seven contests this season. The appeal of this prop comes from facing a Sixers team that has been leaky in regards to their backcourt defense. He sees a sharp spike in the scoring department when playing at home where he is averaging 21.3 points per game. This is a trend that he has continued from last season when he averaged almost two more points per game at the Pepsi Center. He played Philadelphia just once last season scoring 23 points against them. Lock this one in before the aggressive FanDuel adjusts the odds on this prop.

Jamal Murray over 1.5 three-pointers made (-132)
This prop screams value against the suspect backcourt defense of the Philadelphia 76ers. The juice for this prop tells us all we need to know about the early action on this contest as it sits at -136 at FanDuel, with plus money on the under at +104. Murray has cleared this total in four of seven contests this season and is a very strong bet to do so once again against Philadelphia. Murray is averaging 1.6 threes per contest on the season and appears to have a strong probability of hitting at least two from deep if he takes more than a few shots from three-point land. This projects as the top player prop for this contest regardless of which side you lean on. 

Bottom Line

Early bettors have been backing the 76ers with 63 percent of the action coming in on Philadelphia prior to midnight (dropped down to 59 percent after midnight). As mentioned above in our trends section, Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 contests in Denver. They are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 contests against Denver overall. The 5.5 point cushion for a team that still has a chance to pull out an outright victory has tremendous appeal. While Denver should win straight up, covering 5.5 points will be a very tough task against a talented Sixers team that has Joel Embiid back, even if Ben Simmons is ruled out for tonight’s contest. The Nuggets have faced exactly two good teams all season, and have two losses on their record (though one inexplicably came against the 1-6 New Orleans Pelicans). Take the plus points on the road team. 

Philadelphia +5.5 (-110)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.