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NBA Play of the Day for October 25th, 2019

by October 25, 2019

Today’s play of the day features two teams with vastly different ideas of what will constitute a successful season. On the one hand, the Kings, who added veteran depth throughout the offseason, would be happy just to make the playoffs. On the other hand, the Blazers, who tasted the conference finals last season, will not be satiated unless they make an NBA Finals appearance. The line for this contest has already seen some major movement, completely flipping from its opening line. The Blazers are now the favorites as one would expect, and the point spread continues to move. Let’s dig in.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -1.5 on the Sacramento Kings. The over/under total opened at 226.5 points. The lines for this contest being posted as early as Wednesday night caused the spread to already jump to -2.5 on the Blazers. The over/under total has held steady at 226.5.
  • Current Line: Portland -2.5
  • O/U: 226.5
  • Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
  • Start Time: 10:00 PM EST, Friday, October 25th, 2019
  • Last Meeting: Portland defeated Sacramento 136-131 April 10th, 2019

Overview

The Portland Trailblazers opened the season on a disappointing note. They lost at home in a rematch of last year’s NBA semi-finals to the Denver Nuggets. The team added some reinforcements over the offseason, and they most notably brought in talented but volatile big man Hassan Whiteside from the Miami Heat. Jusuf Nurkic is out indefinitely with a gruesome leg fracture suffered late in the 2018-19 season, and Whiteside helps to solidify an intimidating presence in the middle. The Blazers further added to their front line depth by adding Skal Labissiere from Sacramento, Anthony Tolliver from Minnesota, and Pau Gasol from Milwaukee. The Blazers look likely to finish as a top-five seed in a very competitive Western Conference, and they could finish as high as third overall.

The Sacramento Kings suffered an embarrassing loss to the Phoenix Suns in their season opener. Their starting backcourt of De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield both suffered injuries and are questionable for tonight’s contest. The Kings had a solid offseason that saw them bring in veterans Trevor Ariza and Dwayne Dedmon. They also added Richaun Holmes after losing both Skal Labissiere to Portland and Willy Cauley-Stein to the Golden State Warriors. The Kings finished ninth in the Western Conference last season, but taking that number without context can be misleading. The Los Angeles Lakers tanked their way to 10th place in the conference. The Kings themselves had a losing record and were nine games out of eighth place. The Minnesota Timberwolves did Timberwolves things and finished three games behind Sacramento. Even with the upgrades the Kings have made at center and small forward, they may very well be staring an 11th place conference finish in the face when this season is all said and done. 

Trends

  • The favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six contests between these two teams. 
  • Portland is 4-0-1 ATS in the last six contests between these two teams. 
  • The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine contests between these two teams. 
  • The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams in Sacramento. 
  • Portland is 0-1 ATS on the season. 
  • Sacramento is 0-1 ATS on the season. 
  • Portland is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests against teams with losing records. 
  • Portland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests against teams with winning percentages below .400. 
  • Portland is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five contests against the Western Conference. 
  • Sacramento is 6-2 ATS in their last eight Friday contests. 
  • Sacramento is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 contests against the Northwest division. 
  • Sacramento is 18-6 ATS in their last 24 contests following a straight-up loss. 
  • Sacramento is 0-5 in their last five contests against Western Conference teams. 
  • The over is 5-2-1 in Portland’s last eight Friday contests. 
  • The over is 8-1-1 in Portland’s last 10 contests against teams with losing records. 
  • The over is 13-6 in Portland’s last 19 contests following a straight-up loss. 
  • The over is 18-7-1 in Portland’s last 26 contests following a loss ATS. 
  • The under is 5-1 in Sacramento’s last six Friday contests. 
  • The over is 20-8 in Sacramento’s last 28 contests against the Northwest division. 
  • The under is 7-2 in Sacramento’s last nine contests following a double-digit loss. 
  • The under is 29-14-1 in Sacramento’s last 44 contests. 

Prop Bets

Portland first half -0.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
The Kings’ chances in this contest took a big hit when it was revealed that Marvin Bagley will indeed miss time with the thumb injury that he suffered in the season opener. The Kings started out strong in the first half of their contest against the Phoenix Suns, but they will be facing a different animal altogether in the Blazers. Marvin Bagley’s loss coupled with ailments to both Fox and Hield suggests that Portland should be an easy first half and full game cover. Lock in the first-half line before it jumps to -1.5 or -2 at PointsBet.

Damian Lillard over 25.5 (-118 at PointsBet)
Damian Lillard was able to manage 32 points in a contest that the Blazers only scored 100 points in. In a contest against a Kings team that has nowhere near the defensive acumen of the Denver Nuggets, Lillard should be good for another 28 points. Fox is not going to be able to cause many problems for Lillard on offense, and the superstar point guard always has the green light to shoot from anywhere on the floor. The juice appears to be rising on this prop, signaling that the sharps have also seen the value in this line. Lock it in as soon as possible. 

Hassan Whiteside over 13.5 rebounds (-107 at PointsBet)
This is a risky player prop that the early action has gone against. The under currently sits at -124 at PointsBet. There is no reason to believe that Whiteside will average 13.5 rebounds a game with Jusuf Nurkic injured, but in a contest where Whiteside figures to have plenty of rebounding opportunities on both ends of the floor, this line has some appeal. The Blazers missed 21 three-pointers in their season opener and are facing a team headed straight back to the draft lottery. While the Kings made some impressive additions during the offseason, they still lack any true talent at the center position. This should give Whiteside free reign on the boards, especially when one takes into account that Sacramento’s top big Marvin Bagley will miss the next 4-6 weeks with a broken thumb.

Bottom Line

While the +1.5 opening line on Portland was obviously much more appealing, there still appears to be some value at -2.5. Portland is the obviously superior team in this matchup, but they received the benefit of an early-season road line. Fresh off a disappointing loss to the Denver Nuggets, the Trailblazers will press hard against a young Kings team and should be able to win this contest by more than three points. These two teams are on very different paths this season, and only the timing of this contest has led to Vegas setting this line so low. Take advantage of what looked like an early season error and lock Portland in before this line jumps to -3.

Pick: Portland Trailblazers -2.5 (-105)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.