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NBA Play of the Day for October 28th, 2019

by October 28, 2019

Today’s NBA play of the day features an intriguing battle between the Portland Trailblazers and the San Antonio Spurs. Interestingly, last year’s season series saw these two teams win each game on their home floor. As far as tonight’s contest is concerned, C.J. McCollum may be the key to which team pulls out the straight-up victory. He shot .500 from the field against Dallas last night, helping power the Blazers to a win. However, McCollum shot .278 and .444 in his first two games of the season, respectively, numbers that may not get it done at the AT&T Center. Let’s dig in. 

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -4 on the San Antonio Spurs. The over/under total opened at 220.5 points. The spread for this contest has seen some notable movement and now sits at -5.5 on the Spurs. The over/under total has seen some minor movement of its own and currently sits at 220.
  • Current Line: Portland +5.5
  • O/U: 220
  • Location: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
  • Start Time: 8:30 PM EST, Monday, October 28th, 2019
  • Last Meeting: San Antonio defeated Portland 108-103 March 16th, 2019

Overview

The Portland Trailblazers started the season with a disappointing loss to the Denver Nuggets, but they got back on track against the Sacramento Kings. Playing in the second game of a back-to-back set tonight, they may have to lean on their shortened bench more often than usual. Portland is on a mission, as the battle-hardened team is looking to restate their claim as one of the Western Conference’s best after a bitter loss to the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. The Blazers’ big offseason addition, Hassan Whiteside, has helped stabilize a center position that lost Jusuf Nurkic late last season. Portland has looked impressive so far and is 2-1 on the season. 

San Antonio has opened the season with a 2-0 record. Their wins have not come against the toughest of opponents, but the Spurs now have a chance to move to 3-0 with a victory against a much more respectable Portland Trailblazers team. San Antonio did not make any major moves over the offseason. Their most notable addition was the return of Dejounte Murray, who missed the entirety of the 2018-19 season with an injury. Murray has averaged 18.5 points in just 24 minutes per game. The early returns suggest he may be the missing piece needed for the Spurs to return to being a legit competitor and a threat to make it to the Western Conference Finals.

Trends

  • The home team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six contests between these two teams. 
  • The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six contests between these two teams. 
  • Portland is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests in San Antonio. 
  • The over is 5-1 in the last six contests between these two teams played in San Antonio.
  • Portland is 2-1 ATS on the season. 
  • Portland is 2-0 ATS on the road this season. 
  • San Antonio is 0-2 ATS on the season. 
  • San Antonio is 0-2 ATS at home this season. 
  • Portland is 4-1 ATS in their last five road contests. 
  • Portland is 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests following a straight-up win. 
  • Portland is 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests following a win ATS. 
  • Portland is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests on zero days of rest. 
  • San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests on one day of rest. 
  • San Antonio is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home contests. 
  • San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday contests. 
  • San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests following a straight-up win. 
  • The over is 4-0 in Portland’s last four Monday contests. 
  • The over is 6-2 in Portland’s last eight contests following a straight-up win. 
  • The under is 5-2 in Portland’s last seven contests played on zero days of rest. 
  • The under is 4-1 in Portland’s last five contests following a win ATS. 
  • The over is 5-0 in San Antonio’s last five home contests. 
  • The over is 6-2 in San Antonio’s last eight contests. 
  • The under is 12-4 in San Antonio’s last 16 contests against the Western Conference. 
  • The over is 19-7 in San Antonio’s last 26 contests against teams with winning records. 

Prop Bets

San Antonio first half -2.5 (-115 at PointsBet)
San Antonio has averaged 59.5 points per first half over their first two games of the season. Portland, on the other hand, has averaged just 55.3 per first half in their three games this season. Some of this discrepancy can be directly attributed to the strength of their opponents, but the fact remains that the Spurs have looked better in the first half. With Portland playing the second game of a back to back of a Texas road swing, they will have tired legs in the first half. They were manhandled in the first quarter of their contest against Dallas yesterday and may see a similar trend against a hungry San Antonio team. Portland +5.5 is the full game pick, but the Spurs -2.5 for the first half looks like the smart action for first-half bettors.

Damian Lillard over 26.5 points (-115 at PointsBet)
Damian Lillard over 26.5 points at PointsBet looks like the most attractive player prop for this contest. Lillard may not average 26.5 points per game over the course of the full 82 game season, but he is a good bet to clear this total for the fourth-straight contest. Lillard is averaging 31.7 points per game on the season and shows no signs of slowing down. He opened last season on a scoring binge as well and averaged 29.6 points per game through seven contests last October. Finally, Lillard averaged 31 points per game against San Antonio last season. Playing in the second game of a back-to-back set is a concern efficiency-wise, but with Zach Collins likely out after injuring himself against Dallas on Sunday, Lillard will be putting up points in bunches. 

Bottom Line

The Portland Trailblazers look to have a path to an outright victory in this contest. They are the superior team, but they get plus points due to playing on the road on the tail end of their back-to-back set. The Spurs are 2-0 on the season but have yet to face any real competition. San Antonio’s rested legs may carry them to a first-half cover, but they will be hard-pressed to win this contest by more than three points if they can win at all. The overnight movement of this line from -4 or -4.5 to -5.5 on the Spurs has made the Blazers all the more attractive. 

Pick: Portland Trailblazers +5.5 (-105)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.