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NFL Conference Championship Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under

by January 17, 2020

Sadly, there are only three games remaining in the NFL season. However, these three games are shaping up to be exciting ones, with four worthy competitors still alive in Conference Championship Weekend.

Typically, I take a look at the NFL slate for the given week and give my five best bets of the week, whether they are against the spread or betting the over/under on the total. However, there are only two games this weekend, which have lines that I feel are close to right, which makes things difficult. Instead, I will be looking at both games and give my best bet for each.

Side note: I believe betting the Super Bowl champion futures or betting the possible Super Bowl matchup is a more profitable way to play this weekend, and that would be my vote for best bets.

Anyways, let’s take a look at the NFC and AFC Championship games.

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Green Bay Packers (+7.5) at San Francisco 49ers

We are fully aware of what happened when these two teams met earlier in the season. It was an outlier game for both teams, which is not expected to happen again. Since that game, five of the 49ers’ last six games have finished within seven points, with three of their four wins being within five points. The Packers have won every game since by an average of 10.4 points.

There are plenty of betting trends that side with the Packers in this game:

  • Green Bay has only been underdogs on four occasions this season. However, they were able to go 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in these four games, with all coming on the road.
  • Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Packers have played their best football in the month of January in recent seasons, covering the spread in six of their last seven games during January.

On the other side, the 49ers have betting trends that work against them:

  • San Francisco is only 4-4-1 ATS at home, where they were favorites in every game.
  • The 49ers have also been favored in 12 games overall this season, but they’ve gone just 5-6-1 ATS.

Aaron Rodgers is the type of guy that has a chip on his shoulder at all times, but this week especially so. Look for him to keep this game close, at the very least.

Pick: Packers +7.5

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (Over 52.5)

This total has risen higher than I am fully confident in, but it is still an over worth betting. These teams met earlier this season, resulting in a 35-32 Titans victory.

Simply, I think both of these offenses are much better than the defenses they will be across from. Obviously, the Titans have an elite running game, with Derrick Henry running for 180+ yards in three straight games. The Chiefs struggle to stop the run, giving up 4.9 yards per carry this season (Tied for fourth-worst in NFL). Henry was able to run for 188 yards against Kansas City in the first matchup.

On the other side, the Chiefs offense is nearly unguardable, like Tyreek Hill said. They put up 41 unanswered points last week and have covered the spread in seven straight games, despite being double-digit favorites in four of the games.

Yes, both teams have met already once, meaning they have experience to refer back to. However, I do not think they have the personnel to actually slow the opposing offense down.

Pick: Over 52.5

Divisional Round Results: 2-1
Season to Date: 46-41-4

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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.

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