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NFL Futures: Best Bets for 2019 NFL MVP

by May 9, 2019

We’re seeing more and more futures bets rolling out from sportsbooks, and one of the latest set of odds to be released is for the 2019 NFL MVP. We’ve asked our experts and writers to provide you with their best bets for 2019 NFL MVP.

First, let’s take a look at the odds:

Player Odds
Patrick Mahomes +500
Tom Brady +800
Drew Brees +1000
Andrew Luck +1000
Aaron Rodgers +1100
Carson Wentz +1200
Russell Wilson +1200
Baker Mayfield +1400
Philip Rivers +1600
Matt Ryan +2200
Jared Goff +2500
Jimmy Garoppolo +2800
Saquon Barkley +3300
Le’Veon Bell +3300
Kirk Cousins +3300
Ezekiel Elliott +3300
Todd Gurley +3300
Christian McCaffrey +3300

 
Check out the full listing of the odds here.

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What is the best futures bet for 2019 NFL MVP?

Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE) +1400
I had a tough time making this pick. The Colts look like a powerhouse on offense this season, so I really like Luck’s odds at MVP. Ultimately, the odds on Baker are just too good. PFF rated Baker as the fourth-best QB from Week 10 on, as he finished his rookie season with 3,700 yards and 27 TDs in just 14 games. Baker is already an elite QB, so surrounding him with Odell, Landry, Njoku, Chubb, and a finally competent coaching staff means he’ll wake up feeling dangerous a lot more often this season. The wait is over, Cleveland.
– Nick Zylak (@nickzylakFFA)

Looking at MVP winners historically, they are quarterbacks unless you have a historical season like Adrian Peterson had in 2012. Peterson is the only non-quarterback to have won the honor since 2007, so I’m only going to be looking at quarterbacks for this award. Mahomes, Brady, and Brees don’t offer value for me at their current odds. Mayfield’s offense is much improved coming into this season with the acquisition of Odell Beckham, as well as another season with Landry, Chubb, and Njoku. With the division up for grabs with the upheaval in Pittsburgh and Baltimore, there could be a new team going to the playoffs this season. If that happens the press narrative will be positive, with Baker getting the majority of the credit.
– Richard King (@RichKingFF)

Andrew Luck (QB – IND) +1000
I’d like better odds, but everything points to an even better year than 2018 for Luck. That means he should come close to 5,000 yards and surpass 40 passing touchdowns. That’s MVP material. His offensive line should again be one of the best in the league, while the Colts also added a few options in the passing game from possible red-zone target Devin Funchess to speedster rookie Parris Campbell. Combine that with last year’s return from a lengthy injury and it’ll be hard to bet against Luck if his odds go up.
– Adam Zdroik (@RotoZdroik)

Echoing what everyone else has said, the NFL MVP has become a mostly-quarterback based award so it doesn’t seem wise to bet on any other position. Andrew Luck seems like a safe bet to at least land in the top five for MVP voting given preseason expectations for the Indianapolis Colts team as a whole in 2019. He set a career high in touchdowns last year with 39, all with a first-year head coach in Frank Reich. He also set a career high in completion percentage. Indianapolis has the luxury of sporting one of the best offensive lines in all of football, and maybe the best when it comes to pass-protection, so Luck should have plenty of time to once again sit back and dissect defenses in 2019. They signed Devin Funchess and drafted speedy Parris Campbell to add to their receiving corps, giving Luck even more weapons to play with. He’s also entering the prime of his career at the age of 29.
– Shane Davies (@sbdavies7)

Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL) +3300
A quarterback has been selected NFL MVP 11 times in the last 12 years, including six years in a row. If a running back is going to end that streak in 2019, it will be Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys. Elliott’s 2018 season was largely overlooked because of Todd Gurley’s incredible touchdown efficiency. Zeke ranked first in carries and rushing yards in 2018 while becoming a true passing game threat. His total of 77 receptions nearly tripled his total from the prior season. Dallas always has a top offensive line to balance a defense that has ranked in the top 10 in total yards allowed each of the past two seasons. With a repeat of Patrick Mahomes MVP season unlikely and quarterback depth strong throughout the league, 2018 represents a strong chance for a non-quarterback to win the prestigious award. With Todd Gurley ailing and Saquon Barkley residing on a below-average Giants roster, a +3300 value for Elliott is too enticing to pass up.
– Mike Randle (@RandleRant)

Matt Ryan (QB – ATL) +2200
As Mike rightly points out a QB has won this award six years in a row now, and I am not sure how it does not become seven. Ryan was quietly really good last season and now he doesn’t have Steve Sarkisian holding him back. In the three seasons with Dirk Koetter as his OC, he averaged 4,642 yards and 28.67 touchdowns. He will need to improve on that for an MVP season, but he has the talent. Additionally, this year the Falcons defense should hold its own more, which should help the Falcons win more games. That shouldn’t matter for MVP but it is hard to win the award with a .500 record, so if the defense steps up Ryan has a real chance to take home the award at a great price.
– Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15)

Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) + 1100
You can argue that Patrick Mahomes has passed Rodgers up as the best QB in football, but even if he has, Rodgers is a clear second. Keep in mind, Rodgers just finished the year with only two interceptions and the second most yards in his career despite playing through significant injuries. While health is, of course, a concern, you’d have to imagine that if he manages to stay healthy in 2019, those numbers will only get better. Add in the fact that Green Bay finally has a great defense and it is entirely possible the Packers lead the NFC in wins, which seems to be a prerequisite for MVP voters.
– Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)

Jared Goff (QB – LAR) +2500
The NFL MVP award has become mostly a quarterback award. Goff, 24, is in a good position to continue to improve in 2019 under head coach Sean Mcvay, one of the brightest offensive minds in all of football. Goff was fourth in passing yards last year. He threw 32 TDs, leads one of the oddsmakers’ faves to win the NFC and plays in a big media market. All that could lead to huge returns for those willing to take a risk on him on the futures market. For me, that’s what these kinds of bets are all about: finding good value in a market that’s pretty unpredictable anyway.
– Kelsey McCarson (@Kelsey_McCarson)

Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR) +3300
While quarterbacks traditionally tend to win the NFL MVP award, once in a while a running back joins the mix. I am taking a little bit more of an unconventional route and choosing Christian McCaffrey to be the MVP. In 2018 McCaffrey averaged 5.0 yards/carry, compiling nearly 1,100 yards and scoring seven touchdowns on the ground. That’s not all, though. McCaffrey led running backs in targets (124), receptions (107) and receiving yards (867). Also, he was second behind James White and Kareem Hunt for receiving touchdowns (6) last year. McCaffrey is like a Swiss Army knife, with so many ways the Panthers can utilize him out of the backfield. It will help McCaffrey if second-year receiver D.J. Moore develops into a true number one to alleviate some of the attention that he will face from opposing defenses in 2019. It is very rare for a non-quarterback to be named MVP, but there is a good chance a dynamic and speedy running back like McCaffrey can be a legitimate candidate for this award by season’s end.
– Matthew Catalano (@MatthewCatala16)

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