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NFL Futures: Favorite Team Over/Under Win Total Bets (2019)

by August 14, 2019

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We’ll continue our collaborative coverage of NFL Futures this week with a look at our top team over/under win total bets.

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You can see a full list of team over/under win totals and place bets through each of our sportsbook partners here. We also have our consensus over/under win totals for each team from our group of experts.

What is your favorite team over/under win total bet?

Under 9.5 Chicago Bears (-140)
The Bears were able to put together a dominant regular season performance in 2018 mostly thanks to their elite defense. They won 12 games and only slightly outperformed their expected W/L total of 11.5. However, they finished 20th in the NFL in yards per play and ninth in points scored. What that tells us is that the offense was not particularly great but was hyper-efficient with their scoring chances. Given how hard it is to repeat touchdown efficiency, it is quite likely the Bears offense is a bit worse than it was last season. Offense is more likely to produce wins than defense, ergo we like the under for the Bears in 2019.
– Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek)

The Bears are due for regression this year because their defense simply cannot perform at the level it did last year, and Mitch Trubisky and the offense are not ready to take the next step. The latest rumblings out of Bears training camp state that Trubisky has not looked sharp at all. This is troublesome for the Bears, as they leaned heavily on their defense in multiple games last year. They led the NFL with 27 interceptions and were involved in the most one-score games. Losing safety Adrian Amos and cornerback Bryce Callahan will hurt their secondary. New defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano has a much different defensive scheme than Vic Fangio. Pagano places more of an emphasis on blitz packages rather than hidden zone coverage — an adjustment the defense will have to make. According to Warren Sharp, the Bears also have the fifth-worst schedule this year.
– Nic Turner (@sportzbandit)

Under 5.0 Miami Dolphins (-110)
To lose this bet, the Dolphins would have to go 6-10 or better. Even in a weak AFC East outside of the Patriots, I do not see the Dolphins getting to six wins, or even five to push. Ryan Fitzpatrick is penciled in as the starting quarterback to begin the year, and once that experiment fails the Dolphins will see what they have in newly acquired Josh Rosen. There is a complete rebuild happening in Miami up and down their roster. It is amazing the Dolphins went 7-9 last year after ranking 31st in total offense and 29th in total defense. Miami’s schedule is not favorable in that they match up against a tough AFC North while also playing the Colts and Chargers. The #tankfortua hashtags will be out in full force early and it will be interesting how much effort the coaching staff puts into the second half of the year. By that time they will be jockeying for optimal draft position and even possibly the number one overall pick.
– Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

Over 8.0 San Francisco 49ers (-140)
Turnover differential, which is often an indicator of success in the NFL yet more random than you would expect, was not friendly to this 49ers team in 2018 when they finished with a league-worst -25. Registering just two interceptions and 37 sacks, 49ers GM John Lynch was busy this offseason adding two stud pass rushers in DT Dee Ford and LB Kown Alexander to go along with the top defensive player in the draft in DE Nick Bosa out of Ohio State. Mix in a favorable schedule in a division that is largely in rebuilding mode, and I can see a healthy Jimmy G getting this team to a minimum of nine wins while competing for a Wild Card spot.
– TJ Perun (@JohnnyCovers)

Over 9.5 Los Angeles Chargers (-153)
This one feels like a no-brainer. The worst I can see the Chargers finishing this season is 10-6, a record I come to giving the Chargers home losses to the Colts, Texans, Packers, and Steelers, and then an additional two losses against the Chiefs. That means this team would go 3-5 at home and 7-1 on the road. I know that the Chargers didn’t have much of a home-field advantage in 2018, but they still went 5-3. With their toughest games of the season at home, I think the Chargers at least split the four games mentioned above, which means that even if they lose to the Chiefs twice they’re sitting at 12-4. That means they can slip up on the road in Denver, or perhaps even lose a stunner in Jacksonville in December, and they would still finish the season 10-6. I think this team is too poised and talented to take a drastic step back this season.
– Philip Wood (@Phil_Wood_Jr)

Over 8.5 Atlanta Falcons (-110)
Even with all of their defensive injuries last year, the Falcons still pulled out seven wins despite losing four home games and getting swept by the Saints. The schedule is difficult, but adding Dirk Koetter should make the offense more efficient and dynamic, as they have most of the same weapons. While they’ve already dealt with offseason injuries, the return of linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal means everything. If they can improve on both sides of the ball and the Saints regress as expected, nine wins should be attainable, at a minimum.
– Adam Zdroik (@RotoZdroik)

Over 7.0 Buffalo Bills (-110)
The Bills have gone 9-7 (2017) and 6-10 (2018) under HC Sean McDermott. Now, Josh Allen enters year two with a loaded O-line and a fully stocked backfield. Buffalo also has a young, talented young nucleus on defense that includes top talents at all three levels (Ed Oliver, Tremaine Edmunds, Tre’Davious White). I see this team reaching 8-8 — especially considering their division and a schedule that includes the Giants, Redskins, Bengals, Titans, and Broncos.
– Kevin English (@DraftSharks)

Under 6.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-109)
Tampa Bay has a new coaching staff in place for the 2019 season, and I think it’s a vast improvement over their previous regime, but I don’t envision instant success given multiple variables. First off, they have one of the most daunting travel schedules in the history of the NFL. Following a home game on September 22nd, the Buccaneers will not return to Tampa until November 10th, marking a seven-week span without a true home game. That is almost unheard of. They will be flying across the country on multiple occasions during that stretch, including a trip to London thrown-in as well. Secondly, they play in arguably the toughest division in the NFL. Atlanta, New Orleans, and Carolina are all considered to be playoff contenders. They also face off against the AFC South, which is also considered to be one of the best divisions in 2019. Not great. I think their offense will be improved with Bruce Arians calling the shots, but Jameis Winston is still incredibly inconsistent and turns the ball at a league-high rate. Their defense is young and promising but still has glaring weaknesses and just lost their best player in Gerald McCoy. Brighter times are ahead for Tampa, but too many things point in the wrong direction for them in 2019.
– Shane Davies (@sbdavies7)

Over 5.0 Arizona Cardinals (-110)
Prior to last season, 2012 was the last time the Arizona Cardinals didn’t win more than five games. As a franchise, on both sides of the ball, they tend to be a better opponent than they were last year. They had Sam Bradford and rookie Josh Rosen quarterbacking. Bradford was terrible, and Rosen wasn’t ready. All of that is in the past now. This season they have new NFL coach Kliff Kingsbury with his air raid offense, which complements a mobile quarterback, coincidentally, like Kyler Murray, who has a sick arm and scary fast legs. Pair that with a high-class, top-end running back in David Johnson, a future hall of fame receiver, Larry Fitzgerald, and second-year stud receiver Christian Kirk, and you have a recipe to win at least six games, right?! Considering all angles, their defense worries me. The Cardinals defense may lose them games, BUT, in a somewhat similar position last season, the Kansas City Chiefs defense wasn’t special, and they won 12 games because of their offensive prowess. So, even if Arizona’s defense remains the same, which they won’t, they will improve, there is no universe where I can imagine the Cardinals offense not winning them a minimum of six games.
– Tal Malachovsky (@fantasyscouter)

Under 6.0 Washington Redskins (EVEN)
This team is just bad. Washington ended last season losing six of their last seven, and honestly, they enter this season with a team that is worse than that group. Offensively, they have the worst receiving group in the league, with their two best receiving targets (Jordan Reed and Paul Richardson) prone to injury. The offensive line isn’t great, and it may get much worse with the strong possibility that Trent Williams doesn’t play. Without their left tackle, it would be tough for them to put rookie Dwayne Haskins out there to get killed, especially since he will have little to no help from the supporting cast. Defensively, they are still sub par. They would need to win both games against the Giants to have a fighting chance to reach six wins, and I don’t think they are able to even do that.
– Zach Brunner (@FantasyFlurry)

Here are each of our 2019 NFL futures bets:

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