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NFL Futures: Favorite Value Bets to Win Super Bowl LIV (2019)

by October 2, 2019
Drew Brees

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Now that we’re roughly a quarter through the NFL regular season, we’ve asked our writers to provide their best bets to win Super Bowl LIV.

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Which are your favorite bets to win Super Bowl LIV?

New Orleans Saints (+1200)
If the New Orleans Saints can win two games against playoff contenders (Seahawks and Cowboys) with their backup quarterback, then sign me up for +1200 odds to win the Super Bowl. More impressive than simply winning these last two games is the contrast of styles they used to win both. They outscored the Seahawks on the road while putting the clamps on Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys in a defensive struggle. Speaking of the defense, they rank seventh in the league in yards allowed per game. Plus, it is not like Drew Brees’ thumb injury will keep him out for the year. New Orleans will cruise to a division championship, thus guaranteeing them at least one home playoff game. Do not be surprised if they end up with a first round-bye and additional home games as well.
– Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

It’s really easy to say that the New England Patriots have the best chances of winning the Super Bowl, yet again. I could give you a list of arguments that would back up that claim, but I would rather pick a more lucrative bet. If the Rams didn’t just get exposed and disrespected at home by the Bucs, I would have them as my favorite, but such is life. The Chiefs don’t have the defense to win a Super Bowl. So, by the process of deduction, I arrive at the Saints. They have the offense, and the defense to win it all. Plus, their coach is due for another ring. While Drew Brees recovers for the Saints playoff run, Sean Peyton and Company are manufacturing wins. The Saints’ defense is hugely improved, and getting better by the week. The defense is the most exciting part of this team right now, which is not typical for the Saints. The New Orleans Saints defense made Dak and the Cowboys look like Miami’s offense, which is to say, they were ineffective. The NFL wants the Saints to win the Super Bowl, right? After all, they did change the rules for them. Give the Saints a good defense, bring Brees back into this highly-talented offense by the playoffs, and you have a recipe for a Super Bowl-winning team.
– Tal Malachovsky (@fantasyscouter)

Green Bay Packers (+1800)
Off of their first loss of the season, on national television no less, the Green Bay Packers find themselves at nearly 20-to-1 odds to win Super Bowl LIV which I think provides a ton of value. In their aforementioned loss to the Eagles, the Packers caught Philadelphia in a must-win spot and were forced to play most of the game without running back Jamaal Williams who left in the first quarter with a neck injury. Wide receiver Davante Adams also was sidelined with 10 minutes left in the game, unable to finish his career-night which included 10 catches for 180 yards. With a favorable schedule down the stretch that includes the Raiders, Giants, and Redskins, I like the Packers to win their division, and I’ll take my chances with Rodgers in January.
– TJ Perun (@JohnnyCovers)

Philadelphia (+1400)
I almost went with a long shot but couldn’t come up with enough reasons to back a team like the Bears, who have no offense. The Eagles are beaten up right now yet managed to pull out a win against the Packers with their backs up against the wall. Their schedule isn’t great, but with one of the more balanced teams in the league, I trust them more than the Rams, Saints, and Cowboys, all of whom have better odds to win the Super Bowl. I’ll take Carson Wentz and hope the secondary comes around enough to make it all the way.
– Adam Zdroik (@RotoZdroik)

New England (+340)
It’s New England’s world, we’re all just living in it. Through four weeks, it seems like the Patriots and the Chiefs are the only truly viable Super Bowl contenders. New England’s offense has made due without Rob Gronkowski, but the real story is its elite defense. Yes, the Pats have faced Ben Roethlisberger for a half, Mason Rudolph, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Rosen, Luke Falk, and Josh Allen this season. But leading the league in yards allowed per game, sacks, turnovers, and points allowed per game is no fluke. The Chiefs are the more exciting team, but the Patriots have an inside track at home-field advantage in the AFC with their weak division. Regardless, I’d take Belichick and Brady over Reid and Mahomes. If you’re looking for value, I’d give the Saints a look at +1200. If Teddy Bridgewater can hold down the fort without Drew Brees, New Orleans will have a great chance of securing the mediocre NFC South. New Orleans has the best roster, top-to-bottom when healthy, in the NFC.
– Matt Barbato (@RealMattBarbato)

San Francisco (+2200)
Look at the facts here. San Francisco is one of only three undefeated teams (New England, Kansas City) and currently has the NFL’s second-most efficient defense. The 49ers have tallied the second-best pass defense per Football Outsiders’ DVOA and are the only NFL team to have yet to allow a rushing touchdown. On offense, San Francisco has improved each week and now sits sixth overall in offensive efficiency, and will get a boost with the return of running back Tevin Coleman. Finally healthy after recovering from last year’s torn ACL, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has improved his completion percentage each week including a season-high 71.9% in the 24-20 home-opening win over Pittsburgh. The 49ers were due for positive turnover regression after a league-worst minus-25 in 2018. They currently are a more reasonable minus-one through their first three games. San Francisco ranks second among all teams with an average of 175 rushing yards per game, which will be helped by facing the NFL’s easiest slate of run defenses per Sharp Football. With Kansas City and New England in the AFC, the 49ers benefit from playing in the wide-open NFC conference. With the sixth-highest odds among NFC teams, San Francisco offers tremendous value for one of the most complete teams in the NFL.
– Mike Randle (@RandleRant)

Baltimore Ravens (+2400)
The Baltimore Ravens entered the weekend at nearly -200 favorites to win the AFC North. After Sunday’s loss to the Browns, I expect that number to tumble in what could be an overreaction. Even with that loss, the Ravens still have the top offense in the NFL, with 482.5 yards per game and 33.8 points per game (tied with the Chiefs). If the Ravens can win their division, John Harbaugh could be one of the only Super Bowl-winning head coaches in the postseason, and I believe he has the quarterback to do it again.
– TJ Perun (@JohnnyCovers)

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