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NFL Futures: Favorite Value Bets to Win Super Bowl LIV (2019)

by October 30, 2019
Drew Brees

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Now that we’re roughly a quarter through the NFL regular season, we’ve asked our writers to provide their best bets to win Super Bowl LIV.

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Which are your favorite bets to win Super Bowl LIV?

New Orleans Saints (+500)
I’ll admit, these are not the greatest odds for a futures bet at the halfway point of the season. But when a team is 7-1 and just went 5-0 without their Hall of Fame quarterback, you are not going to get great odds. Teddy Bridgewater filled in more than admirably for Drew Brees. During his time as starter, the Saints won at Seattle, against Dallas, and put 36 points on the Bears’ vaunted defense. New Orleans has the sixth-ranked total defense and are in the top 10 in points allowed per game. Outside of their divisional matchups, they play just two teams with a winning record the rest of the season. One of those games is at home against the 49ers. If they win that game, they should have the inside track for the all-important home-field advantage in the playoffs. The NFC is much more balanced than the AFC, but I like the Saints to get their revenge and win the Super Bowl after the unfair way their season ended last year.
– Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

Going to agree with Mike on this one. New Orleans is 7-1 and still somehow isn’t getting the respect they deserve. Not only did they dominate without their future Hall of Fame quarterback, but they did so against a formidable schedule. And while the offense will always be a strength as long as Drew Brees is under center, their defense has really taken their play to the next level this season. They rank eighth in total DVOA, including sixth in adjusted sack percentage. They are well on their way to obtaining home-field advantage in the NFC, which would obviously be huge come playoff-time given the noise the Superdome can generate.
– Shane Davies (@sbdavies7)

Indianapolis Colts (+3000)
I was on the Colts when they were about +7000 before the Texans game, but the numbers have dropped considerably. I still think they’re the best value available. I may like some of the NFC teams more, but they’re going to beat up on each other and even then, their value isn’t good enough with how deep the conference is. The one thing you have to do in the AFC is beat the Patriots, and the Colts have the offensive line to do it. No one else in the conference scares me, which makes +3000 enticing. Sure, the underlying numbers don’t support the Colts, but they’re at least competitive, and that’s all that matters in a mediocre conference.
– Adam Zdroik (@RotoZdroik)

Baltimore Ravens (+1800)
In a league increasingly dominated by what team can score the most points, the Baltimore Ravens continue to creep under the radar of the league’s elite. To the halfway point of the season, the Ravens rank second in points (30.6) and offensive yards (434.9) per game. Lamar Jackson continues to take every piece of criticism of this offense not being able to sustain its pace personally, and in recent weeks has done a better job of avoiding hits that he previously took. Furthermore, the back half of the schedule sets up to have winnable division games against the easiest division-opponents in the NFL and favorably scheduled home games against the Texans and Jets. Lastly, come playoff time they will be battle-tested against the league’s best in New England (this week) and San Francisco (Week 13). If they can remain healthy, they should be the AFC’s best chance to knock off the Patriots.
– TJ Perun (@JohnnyCovers)

San Francisco 49ers (+850)
Off to a 7-0 start, the 49ers have been the biggest surprise in the NFL so far. Despite some easy matchups early on, this team is for real, and the stats back it up. On offense, they boast a punishing run-game, as they are second in the league in rushing yards per game and first in rushing touchdowns per game. Tevin Coleman has looked super explosive in his first year with the Niners, and he and Matt Breida will be a dynamic duo going forward. However, it is the defense that stands out most with this team. Second in opponent points per game and first in opponent yards per game, this team is tough to move the ball against. They have one of the brightest young minds in football in Kyle Shanahan at the helm, and they must be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender.
– Nic Turner (@sportzbandit)

Kansas City Chiefs (+1400)
This feels like the perfect buy-low opportunity to get in on the Kansas City Chiefs. The injury to Patrick Mahomes has taken some of the wind out of their sails. That said, when he is back under center this team is as scary as any. The Patriots will need a challenger in the AFC, and Kansas City should be that team. The defense must get better, but their offense has the ability to win any game. Once Mahomes is back and healthy this line will drop into single-digits and the value with this number will be gone. Get in while the getting is good.
– Kyle Robert (@Notoriouskro)

Green Bay Packers (+1000)
The Packers are 7-1, putting them in play for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They’ve won four straight without Davante Adams, who should return from turf toe over the next two weeks. The Packers also sit tied for third league-wide in turnover differential (+7). If they can shore up the run D, it’s easy to see an Aaron Rodgers-led team making a deep run.
– Kevin English (@DraftSharks)

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