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NFL Futures: Top Bets to Win Comeback Player of the Year (2019)

by July 24, 2019

We’ll continue our collaborative coverage of NFL Futures this week with a look at our top bets for 2019 Comeback Player of the Year.

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First, let’s check out the odds courtesy of DraftKings:

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds
Jimmy Garoppolo
+300 Le’Veon Bell +400
Devonta Freeman +700 Cam Newton +1200
Earl Thomas +1200 A.J. Green +1400
Carson Wentz +1400 Eli Manning +3300

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What is your favorite bet to win 2019 Comeback Player of the Year?

Carson Wentz (QB – PHI): +1400
I’m shocked how far down this list Carson Wentz is. While everyone ahead of him has the potential to win the award, nobody has a clearer path than Wentz. The Eagles almost made another improbable playoff run without him last season, and key weapons from that offense are back in Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffrey. The Eagles also went out and added new targets such as DeSean Jackson and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside from Stanford. Remember, this man was about to be MVP two seasons ago before his ACL injury. The Eagles play in a division that they match up favorably in. If Wentz can stay healthy there is no reason to think this isn’t his award to lose.
– Philip Wood (@Phil_Wood_Jr)

Wentz is walking back into the starting role on what should be one of the best offenses in the NFL. With a slew of new weapons at his disposal, including Jordan Howard, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, and DeSean Jackson, combined with familiar veterans in Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffrey, Wentz will have no issues finding someone to throw the ball to. If that wasn’t enough to convince you, according to ProFootballFocus’ rankings, the Eagles have the No. 1 Offensive Line headed into this season. So there you have it. A super athletic and competent quarterback behind the best offensive line in football with one of the best overall offensive lineups makes Wentz the best bet for comeback player of the year, by far.
– Jon Stone (@JonStoneFF)

A.J. Green (WR – CIN): +1400
Returning from a season-ending toe injury, A.J. Green has a strong chance to have a massive year under a new offensive system. Zac Taylor will bring a whole new look to the Bengals that will be highly innovative and will include multiple deep shots. Green was quoted saying “the sky’s the limit for this offense, I feel like this offense mirrors a lot when we had Jay (Gruden). A lot of deep shots and a lot of stuff like that. It could be big. It could be a big year.” If both Andy Dalton and Green can stay healthy this year, they should be able to put up some numbers. Big play opportunities are what Green thrives off of, as he remains one of the most lethal downfield threats in the NFL. Look for Green to improve upon his 23% target share on his way to a nice bounce-back campaign.
– Nic Turner (@sportzbandit)

Cincinnati’s offense hinges on the health of its star receiver. Before missing seven games of the 2018 season with a toe injury, Green was on pace for a potential career year. He had already reeled in 46 passes for 694 yards and six touchdowns before being sidelined. Much has been made about how new head coach Zac Taylor will inject some L.A. Rams offensive principles into Cincy’s schemes. This should greatly benefit Green, who is still one of the league’s premier wide receivers when healthy. He’ll remain the catalyst of an offense that averaged only 18.3 points per game in the eight games he missed (including a Week 12 loss to Denver in which Green started but didn’t finish the game). It’s also worth noting that Green is playing for what will likely be the last big contract of his impressive career. While quarterbacks are the popular pick, I like Green’s value at 14/1.
– Matt Barbato (@RealMattBarbato)

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF): +300
Garoppolo is the odds-on favorite to win the 2019 Comeback Player of the Year Award. While I get the arguments for Carson Wentz, he is not the right choice given he wasn’t “that” injured last year. Wentz played in 11 games in 2018. Here are the last five winners of the Comeback Player of the Year with how many games they played the year prior to winning the award: Andrew Luck (0), Keenan Allen (1), Jordy Nelson (0), Eric Barry (6), Rob Gronkowski (7). Jimmy Garoppolo appeared in just three games last year, which creates a much better narrative for being a Comeback Player. Vegas has set the 49ers O/U for season wins at 8.0. If Garoppolo can meet these expectations and lead San Francisco to an 8-8 or 9-7 record in a tough NFC West division, he deserves serious consideration for the award. If he leads them to the playoffs, this bet is as good as a lock.
– Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

These are terrible odds, but I think Garoppolo is the only way to go since none of the long shots are worth a gamble. I also find it hard to believe Wentz can win comeback player after playing in 11 games and throwing for 3,000 yards last year. I like Garoppolo because his replacements still played fine last year and a lot of that had to do with Kyle Shanahan. As long as Garoppolo can stay healthy, I think 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns are realistic. Sure, you can worry about his knee, but I’d rather bet on a guy I know is going to produce whenever he’s on the field.
– Adam Zdroik (@RotoZdroik)

Here are each of our 2019 NFL futures bets:

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