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NFL Futures: What are the Best AFC East Futures Bets?

by May 15, 2020

NFL futures bets are red-hot now that the league’s regular-season schedule has been released – and there are no shortage of intriguing win totals and player prop options in what could be a wide-open AFC East. Our betting experts share their favorite plays within the division (odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook; odds may vary between sportsbooks).

Check out our complete list of team win totals and Super Bowl odds here >>

Q1. Which AFC East wins total is the most intriguing play in 2020?

The Jets have a difficult schedule and their many new faces may not have time to develop chemistry together with potentially limited training camps. Nevertheless, with an over/under of just 6.5, the Over on the Jets (-115) is my favorite play of the AFC East. The Jets had to essentially play without a quarterback for three games and had both an abysmal offensive line and secondary last year, yet still finished 7-9. With both areas addressed through the draft free agency, and with the return to health of both C.J. Mosley and Avery Williamson, the Jets have a chance to not only surpass 6.5 wins, but compete for the division.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)

I know it’s boring, but I’m taking the Patriots over 9 wins (-105). Bill Belichick is 13-6 with Jacoby Brissett, Matt Cassel and Jimmy G starting over the years. Per 16 games, their numbers combined for 3,900 passing yards, 21 TDs, 9 interceptions and 350 rushing yards. To put that into perspective, Deshaun Watson had 3,850 passing yards, 26 TDs, 12 INTs and 400 rushing yards. Yeah, they are going to be just fine, especially with that all-world defense.
– Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)

The most intriguing win totals prediction from not just a confidence standpoint but also an entertainment standpoint is the Patriots Under 9 wins (-115). The Patriots won 12 games last year, but that was with Tom Brady under center and also while facing a much easier schedule. This year’s crossover opponents are the teams from the AFC West and NFC West. With games against three of the league’s best (49ers, Chiefs and Ravens) and without the most accomplished quarterback of all-time, eight wins or less seems much more likely than ten or more wins.
– Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

I’m going to roll with the Jets Under 6.5 wins at FanDuel Sportsbook (-105). Why? New York had a chaotic 2019 on their way to a 7-9 record. They lost some weeks spectacularly, while they eked out narrow victories in others. While their 7-9 record sounds good, the Jets lost seven of their games by two or more scores, and they only won by that margin twice. Their 5-2 record in close games seems flukish, and I’m confident that Adam Gase’s coaching will keep them under 7-9 next year.
– Isaiah Sirois (@is_sirois)

I like the Bills Over 8.5 wins (-160). This line was set very well. The Buffalo Bills appear to have eight games on their schedule they should win pretty handily. That means they will only need to win one more of the remaining eight contests to surpass the current total of 8.5 wins posted at FanDuel. The additions of Stefon Diggs and Zack Moss give the Bills more talent on offense, while the additions of Josh Norman and second round pick A.J. Epenesa makes the Bills an even more formidable defensive unit. The juice on this future is likely to continue to rise until such a time that New England signs someone like Cam Newton. That may not happen at all, so the suggestion here is to keep the lay small and to simply angle for a full unit return.
– Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext)

Check out our complete list of 2020 player prop bets here >>

Q2. Which AFC East player prop are you most high on at the moment?

Josh Allen Under 3,249.5 passing yards (-112) is my favorite AFC East play. The Bills added Stefon Diggs this offseason, so it’s fair to assume that Allen’s passing yards could jump significantly from his 3,089 last year. But Diggs or not, we know Sean McDermott’s style, and it’s going to be to again lean heavily on the running game and rely on the defense. The Bills have seven games against teams ranked in the top-10 in defensive DVOA last year, and face only a handful of explosive offenses. The schedule and coaching staff portend a generally conservative gameplan which should limit Allen’s passing yards.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)

I’ll take the Over on Sam Darnold tossing 22.5 touchdowns (-108). Darnold, of course, struggled in the first two games after coming back early from mono but after that point, he threw 16 TDs in just 10 games (a 26 TD pace over a full season). Let’s not forget, too, that the former #3 overall pick was just 22 years old last season and is likely to continue taking steps forward each of the next few seasons. Additionally, the Jets added both Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims to their receiving core while grabbing one of the top passing blocking left tackles in the 2020 NFL Draft to help protect Darnold.
– Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)

I will take Josh Allen to go Over 20.5 passing touchdowns (-112). Allen improved from ten touchdown passes to 20 in year two, and the Bills offense only got better in the offseason. Newly acquired wide receiver Stefon Diggs will give the Buffalo offense the deep threat that they have been missing. Sure, as long as coach Sean McDermott is in charge the offense will always be predicated around the running game. However, by surrounding Allen with more weapons it is clear the Bills front office wants more of an explosive offensive attack. Look for Buffalo to unleash Allen’s talented arm and expect the best stats of his career this season.
– Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

I’ll stick with the Jets here. The line for Le’Veon Bell’s total yardage sits at 1,299.5, and you can get that at -112 on either side. I suggest you tap the Under here for a few reasons. First, Bell’s not getting any younger. Running backs tend to decline after they turn 27, and this is Bell’s age 28 season. And unlike last year, he won’t be coming off a full year of rest. Second, Bell didn’t even hit the over on this line last year. He earned just 1,250 all-purpose yards in 2019, his worst numbers since his six-game 2015. Oh, and third, he’ll have to compete with Frank Gore for snaps.
– Isaiah Sirois (@is_sirois)

I’m leaning toward Le’Veon Bell Over 6.5 rushing + receiving TDs (-140). The juice on this prop is telltale. Le’Veon Bell had his worst season ever in 2019, so this number has been placed much lower than it should be. Yes, Bell remains a questionable fit in New York, and head coach Adam Gase has now brought in both Frank Gore and Lamical Perine to siphon touches, but Bell is due for some positive regression in the touchdown department. A more balanced offensive attack should allow Bell to once again score at least seven touchdowns. Prior to last season Bell had scored at least seven touchdowns in every season that he played over seven games in. The Jets remade their offensive line this offseason, and Bell could likely just run behind 2020 first-round pick Mekhi Becton for at least five of his scores. Bell found the end zone just four times despite 27 red zone touches in 2019; both of these numbers should climb in 2020.
– Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext)

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