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NFL Futures: What are the Best AFC West Futures Bets?

by June 12, 2020

NFL futures bets are red-hot now that the league’s regular-season schedule has been released – and there are no shortage of intriguing win totals and player prop options for the AFC West. Our betting experts share their favorite plays within the division (odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook; odds may vary between sportsbooks).

Check out our complete list of team win totals and Super Bowl odds here >>

Q1. Which AFC West wins total is the most intriguing play in 2020?

I’m taking the Broncos OVER 7.5 wins (-110). The Broncos defense dealt with some big injuries in Vic Fangio’s first season as the head coach, and they not only get those players back healthy, but they’ve added some talent in Jurrell Casey and A.J. Bouye this offseason. The defense should be stout. Add in the additions of Jerry Jeudy, Melvin Gordon, KJ Hamler, and Albert Okwuegbunam to the offense, and you have a team that will improve. This is a team that won 7 games last year, so a minimum of 8-8 should be in the bag.
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)

I liked the Chargers better at over 7.5 wins like they were two months ago, but I’ll still take them at OVER 8 wins (-110). The Chargers were much better than their 5-11 record last year, as they lost an incredible amount of one-score games and, as usual, dealt with plenty of injuries. Tyrod Taylor is a capable quarterback who once took the Bills to the playoffs and has a 22-20 record as a starter. They upgraded their offensive line by adding Bryan Bulaga and traded for Trai Turner, and they added Chris Harris Jr. to an already excellent defense. With plenty of winnable games against the Jaguars, Bengals, Dolphins, Panthers, Jets, and Patriots, the Chargers should be able to go over .500 so long as they can avoid major injuries.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)

The Chargers are projected to win just 7.5 games and while they did struggle last season, many of their non-skill players were injured, plus Phillip Rivers was playing through a passing arm injury. Yes, their quarterback situation isn’t great, but Tyrod Taylor is more than capable of winning eight games with this extremely talented defense and weapons ranging from Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry to Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson. They are by no means the favorite, nor is this close to a lock (like I’d argue is the case for the Bengals and Patriots hitting the over) but I do expect the Chargers to finish second in this division.
– Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)

I love the Los Angeles Chargers to win OVER 8 games. Their sixth-ranked defense from a year ago is mostly intact, and they appear ready to wreak havoc once again. In addition, the Chargers invested a lot in their offensive line in the offseason. They acquired guard Trai Turner from the Panthers and signed former Packers right tackle Bryan Bulaga to a three-year deal. Tyrod Taylor is more than capable of leading the Chargers to a .500 or better record. He knows how to manage a game well and rely on a solid defense, just like he did in Buffalo. The Chargers will win many games in the trenches, and their defense will be impossible to throw on now that they’ve got Chris Harris Jr.
– Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

Check out our complete list of 2020 player prop bets here >>

Q2. Which AFC West player prop are you highest on at the moment?

The OVER on Patrick Mahomes’ 4,499.5 passing yards (-112) seems too easy. Unless there’s an injury, that’s a mark he’ll hit. That amounts to 281 passing yards per game, a mark that Mahomes has hit in 21-of-30 full games in his career. He’s now hit 300-plus yards in 57 percent of his games, which gives him plenty of cushion if he has a few games under that 281-yard benchmark. My current projections have him ending up with 4,820 yards, which even allows for a missed game.
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)

I usually prefer under prop bets, but when I have a quarterback projected for roughly 500 yards passing more than their player prop, it’s hard not to be up for the Patrick Mahomes OVER 4,499.5 passing yards. Mahomes’ career passing yards per game is 303.6, meaning if he just played at his normal pace, he could miss a game due to injury and clear the mark. He’ll continue to play in a pass-heavy scheme behind an elite offensive line with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Absent an injury, he’ll clear this mark with ease, and even missing a game or perhaps two, he’ll still go over on this one.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)

I am a sucker for the under on player prop bets, if only because the betting public tends heavily towards optimism and the over which gives the under an advantage more often than not. My favorite under, perhaps in the entire NFL, this season is Courtland Sutton UNDER 1,100.5 receiving yards (-112). This is an offense that wants to run the ball, having signed Melvin Gordon to play alongside Philip Lindsay and, oh by the way, both catch the ball quite well out of the backfield too. Then you’ve got a tremendous second-year tight end in Noah Fant, who should take a step forward, a first round pick, and one of the best wideout prospects in recent history, in Jerry Jeudy plus KJ Hamler, who was a second round NFL-ready talent. Even if Sutton can manage to play all 16 games once again this season (a difficult task in itself), he will be hard-pressed to repeat going over 1,100 yards with the major upgrade in surrounding weapons.
– Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)

Give me Patrick Mahomes UNDER 35.5 passing touchdowns (-112). Call this a “fade the public” type of play who will likely get their hands on everything associated with the over on Mahomes. His touchdowns dropped massively from 50 during his MVP campaign two years ago to 26 last year. He did miss two games with injury, but he was also on pace to throw 30 less passes than the season before. Early on, Mahomes faces tough pass defenses like the Chargers, Ravens, Patriots and Bills. In addition, they play many games (Jets, Carolina, Miami) where they should be up so big that Mahomes rests in the fourth quarter. I’ll hold my nose and take the under on his passing touchdowns.
– Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

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