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NFL Parlay & Best Bets for Thanksgiving Day (Week 12)

by November 24, 2021

Good food, time off, and family — what else could you want on Thanksgiving? Oh, right, football. If you’re planning to watch the games, here’s a three-leg parlay to get you some exposure to all of Thursday’s action. Hopefully, I can help you make a bit of extra dough right before Black Friday.

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#1. Bears at Lions: Cairo Santos o1.5 Field Goals | +110 at DK Sportsbook

Straight Bet Size: .5u

That’s right, we’re starting Thursday off with a kicker prop. Cairo Santos has knocked in at least two field goals in exactly half of his games this season, so he’s batting .500 against a line with implied odds of 47.6%. That isn’t much value, but it is some.

But I’m not picking Santos because of the math. I’m picking him because the Lions don’t play good defense and the Bears don’t play good offense. Chicago will generate plenty of yards and drives against Detroit’s vulnerable defense, but they will also struggle to finish things off. While it’s true that no Andy Dalton-led drive has ended in a field goal this season (crazy, right?), that streak has to end eventually. Through Dalton’s nine starts for the Cowboys last year, Greg Zuerlein hit 19 field goals (2.1 per game).

The Bears scored three touchdowns against the Lions earlier this year, but they still needed Santos to bail them out with a field goal once. The Lions allow a league-high number of field goals per game (2.1), too. As a result, I expect Chicago to call Santos’ number at least twice in the rematch.

#2. Raiders at Cowboys: Dalton Schultz o47.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DK Sportsbook

Straight Bet Size: .5u

Lots of Dalton discourse today. Schultz, the Cowboys’ starting tight end, has gone for at least 48 receiving yards in six of his 10 starts this season. That’s already a solid hit rate, but Schultz has a couple of other factors working in his favor here.

First, the Cowboys won’t have at least one of their starting wide receivers, Amari Cooper. The veteran wideout will have to miss this game due to the health and safety protocols. There is also a chance that CeeDee Lamb won’t clear the concussion protocol in time, although the recent news out of Dallas suggests that he has a good chance to do so.

Second, the Raiders have fared considerably worse against opposing tight ends than wideouts. They have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers (1,277) but the sixth-most to tight ends (667). They have also given up the third-most receptions (63) to the position.

#3. Bills at Saints: Tre’Quan Smith o37.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DK Sportsbook

Straight Bet Size: .5u

Our Thanksgiving slate will come to an end with a battle between the beleaguered Bills and the banged-up Saints. Both squads need a win to turn their seasons back in the right direction. While the books expect Buffalo to win this one handily, as the Bills are six-point favorites, I believe more betting value lies in the hands of New Orleans’ receiving corps.

Tre’Quan Smith, a third-round pick in 2018, made a quiet return to New Orleans’ offense in Week 7. He caught just one of his three targets for 11 yards. But since then, Smith has caught at least three passes per game. He is averaging 48.5 receiving yards per game through that stretch. Notably, all four of those games came with Trevor Siemian under center. The journeyman quarterback appears to trust Smith.

Although Buffalo’s defense has been stingy against opposing wideouts, as they permit the fewest receiving yards per game to the position, they haven’t been unbeatable lately. Corey Davis notched 93 receiving yards against them in Week 10. DeVante Parker went for 85 yards in Week 8, too. Smith doesn’t need to have that big of a game to hit the over, and I have faith he’ll do just enough to cash our parlay on Thursday night.

Total Odds: +634 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Parlay Bet Size: .5u

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

NFL, Picks