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NFL Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Week 3 Favorites (2022)

by September 23, 2022
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It’s been a decent start to the player-props betting season.

Could we call it a better-than-decent start?

Yes.

Could we call it a very good start?

Yes.

Could we strut around the room like a peacock while throwing fistfuls of dollar bills aloft?

Um, no, because we are reluctant to engage in the sort of hubris that would draw the ire of Gamblor, the god of sports wagering. Gamblor is a vengeful spirit, and we dare not incur his wrath by boasting about early success. Let’s just keep our heads down, keep grinding and not draw Gamblor’s attention.

  • Last week: 5-1
  • Season record: 10-3

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings

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Josh Allen OVER 280.5 passing yards (-115)

After Miami’s spectacular comeback win in Baltimore last Sunday, Bills-Dolphins has arguably become the sexiest matchup of Week 3. The over/under was at 52.5 points as of Thursday morning, so the betting public expects a shootout. Allen lit up the Rams for 297 passing yards in Week 1 and racked up 317 yards in Week 2, even though the Bills won both games comfortably and could afford to take their foot off the gas early. Allen cleared the 300-yard mark in Week 2 without WR Gabriel Davis, who’s likely to return from an ankle injury. The Dolphins’ pass defense ranks 31st in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and has allowed 265 passing yards a game through two weeks despite facing two run-heavy opponents (Patriots, Ravens).

Michael Carter UNDER 39.5 rushing yards (-125)

Through two games, Michael Carter has played 60% of the Jets’ offensive snaps, while highly regarded rookie RB Breece Hall has had only a 27% snap share. That’s largely attributable to game script. Carter is the Jets’ passing-down back, and the Jets have been in negative game scripts for most of their first two games, getting blown out by the Ravens in Week 1 and then falling behind early against the Browns in Week 2 before pulling out a miraculous come-from-behind victory. Carter has averaged 8.5 carries a game, and this week he faces a Bengals defense that is giving up 63 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry to opposing RBs.

Chase Edmonds UNDER 34.5 rushing yards (-120)

Edmonds has failed to hit this number in each of his first two games, and we saw his role reduced in Week 2. Edmonds played 63% of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps in Week 1, but his snap share slipped to 51% in Week 2, as the Dolphins gave Raheem Mostert more work. Mostert out-snapped Edmonds 39-36 and out-carried him 11-5 in Miami’s thrilling come-from-behind win over the Ravens. This week, the Dolphins host the Bills, who have given up just 54.5 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs so far and rank third in DVOA against the run.

Hayden Hurst OVER 30.5 receiving yards (-115)

Hurst has been targeted 15 times in the Bengals’ first two games and has had five catches in each. He’s accumulated only 70 receiving yards because he’s averaging a woefully inefficient 4.7 yards per target, but we should probably expect an efficiency boost against the Jets, who allowed 65.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends last season. Hurst has played 78% of the Bengals’ offensive snaps this season. That number could climb even higher in Week 3 since the Bengals’ blocking tight end, Drew Sample, is going to miss time with a knee injury.

Brandin Cooks OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-115)

Cooks has cleared this number in four of his last six regular-season games dating back to last December. He’s seen double-digit targets in both of his games this season, and his status as the alpha receiver in the Texans’ offense is unchallenged. Cooks goes up against a Bears defense that has given up only 34 targets to wide receivers through two weeks, but there’s a reason for that. The 49ers-Bears game in Week 1 took place in monsoon-like conditions in Chicago, and in Week 2 the Bears were beaten easily by the Packers, who were able to lean on their running game in the second half. When wide receivers have been targeted against the Bears this season, they’ve put up 9.3 yards per target. Cooks should be able to clear this relatively low bar.

Leonard Fournette UNDER 30.5 receiving yards (-115)

Can we dispense with the notion that Fournette is some sort of exceptional pass catcher? Yes, he had 69 receptions last year but averaged an inefficient 6.6 yards per catch and only 4.9 yards per target. Fournette has been even less efficient so far in 2022, turning six targets into 19 receiving yards — an average of 3.2 yards per target. It’s possible Fournette gets a target bump this week since the Buccaneers will be without WRs Mike Evans (suspension) and Chris Godwin (injury), but he’ll be facing a Packers defense that has given up only nine targets, seven receptions and 41 receiving yards to opposing RBs this year. Packers LBs De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker can both run and cover. Take the under here.

Cooper Kupp OVER 98.5 receiving yards (-115)

Yes, we’re going to keep hammering Cooper Kupp’s overs. Do I even need to give you reasons? Sigh … fine. Since the beginning of the 2021 season, Kupp has beaten this yardage total in 15 of 23 games. He’s beaten it in both of his games this season, going for 128 yards in Week 1 and 108 yards in Week 2. He’s averaging 14.5 targets and 12.0 receptions a game in 2022, with double-digit catches in both games. Now he faces a Cardinals pass defense that ranks 28th in DVOA. The Cardinals gave up six receptions to Chiefs slot receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster in Week 1 and seven receptions to Raiders slot man Hunter Renfrow in Week 2.


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