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NFL Week 14: Top Against the Spread, Over/Under, and Moneyline Bets

by December 5, 2019

The fantasy football season is over, (what playoffs?) and the NFL playoff race is heating up. The time couldn’t be better to get in on some action, so we’ve compiled the best bets of the week. Expert voting, an analysis of past performance, and system plays are all factors in our bet rating. For more info on the methodology, check out the Week 9 article.

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Top Against the Spread Bets

Rank Game Bet Expert Voting Past Performance System Plays Bet Rating
1 DAL@CHI DAL -3.5 73% 58% 69
2 PIT@ARI PIT -1 76% 54% 69
3 KC@NE KC +3.5 65% 55% 62
4 LAC@JAC JAC +1.5 73% 46% 53% 62

 
Dallas -3.5 at Chicago

  • Expert voting: 73%. We’ve built a bit of a tradition of picking road teams against the spread. I line of -3.5 means Vegas things these teams would be close to evenly matched on a neutral field. This strikes me and 73% of experts as wrong: the Cowboys are clearly the better team.
  • Past performance ratings: 57% for Dallas, 59% for facing Chicago, for a combined 58%.
  • Bet rating: 69.

Pittsburgh -1 at Arizona

  • Expert voting: 76%.
  • Past performance ratings: 52% for Pittsburgh, 55% for facing Arizona, for a combined 54%.
  • Bet rating: 69.

Kansas City +3.5 at New England

  • Expert voting: 65%.
  • Past performance ratings: 54% for Kansas City, 57% for facing New England, for a combined 55%.
  • Bet rating: 62.

Jacksonville +1.5 vs LA Chargers

  • Expert voting: 73%.
  • Past performance ratings: 41% for Jacksonville, 50% for facing Los Angeles, for a combined 46%.
  • System Play: Jacksonville is on a 3-game losing streak against the spread. Such teams historically cover in their next game 54% of the time, with a p-value of .09. That gives an expected future performance of 53%.
  • Bet rating: 62.

Top Over-Under Bets

Rank Game Bet Expert Voting Past Performance Bet Rating
1 DET@MIN Over 42.5 79% 46% 70
2 DEN@HOU Over 41 83% 37% 69
3 DAL@CHI Under 44 73% 56% 68

 
Detroit at Minnesota: Over 42.5

  • Expert Voting: 79%.
  • Past performance ratings: 43% for Minnesota, 50% for Detroit, for a combined 46%.
  • Bet rating: 70.

Denver at Houston: Over 41

  • Expert Voting: 83%. This is our highest of the week for any ATS or Over/Under bet.
  • Past performance ratings: 44% for Houston, 29% for Denver, for a combined 37%.
  • Bet rating: 69.

Dallas at Chicago: Under 44

  • Expert voting: 73%.
  • Past performance ratings: 64% for Chicago, 48% for Dallas, for a combined 56%.
  • Bet rating: 68.

Top Money Line Bets

Rank Game Bet Expert Voting Past Performance Bet Rating
1 SEA@LAR SEA -136 73% 48% 66
2 LAC@JAC JAC +102 67% 54% 63
3 KC@NE KC +145 67% 35% 57

 
Seattle -136 at LA Rams

  • Expert voting: 73%.
  • Past performance ratings: 42% for Seattle, 54% for facing Los Angeles, for a combined 48%.
  • Bet rating: 66.

Jacksonville +102 vs LA Chargers

  • Expert voting: 67%.
  • Past performance ratings: 67% for Jacksonville, 41% for facing Los Angeles, for a combined 54%.
  • Bet rating: 63.

Kansas City +145 at New England

  • Expert voting: 67%.
  • Past performance ratings: 35% for Kansas City, 34% for facing New England, for a combined 35%.
  • Bet rating: 57.

Last Week’s Results

Last week continued the trend of doing better against the spread than with other bet types.

  • We were 2-1 against the spread. hitting on SEA -3 and GB -6.5, and missing on NE -3. We are 13-4 (76%) on the season.
  • We were 1-2 on totals, hitting on DAL-BUF Under 45, but missing on CIN-NYJ Over 41 and NYG-BG Over 46.5. That brings us to 7-8 (47%) on the season.
  • We were 1-3 on money lines, winning CHI -104, but losing NE -170, LAC -155 and CLE +144, for a net loss of 2 units. That brings us to -4.4 out of 18 units on the season.

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Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow himĀ @jacoblawherlin.

NFL, Picks