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NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Projected Spreads & Predictions (2022)

by October 7, 2022
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Our model creates expert lines for every NFL game. We compare the expert lines to current point spreads to identify potential value for every NFL game. You can find the full NFL Betting Picks: Projected Spreads Report here. And here are a few picks and notes for Week 5.

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NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Projected Spreads & Predictions (2022)

Giants vs. Packers

Team Open Consensus Experts Cover Probability Expected Value
Giants +6.0 +8.0 +7.6 51% -2%
Packers -6.0 -8.0 -7.6 49% -7%

 

Lean Giants +8, Over 40.5

The Giants are optimistic that Daniel Jones will play this week against the Packers. Their backup, Tyrod Taylor, missed practice due to a concussion, which puts more importance on Jones playing. However, they will likely look to run the ball against the Packers, who just allowed 167 yards on the ground to the Patriots. Saquon Barkley should have plenty of success running the football. He currently leads the NFL in rushing yards with 463, so another 100-yard game is likely in his future.

On offense for the Packers, they should also enjoy success running the ball. The Giants have allowed 5.1 yards per rush attempt, and so far this season, Aaron Jones is averaging 6.8 yards per rush attempt. The Giants have yet to record an interception on defense but are second in the league in red zone scoring percentage at 35.7%.


Cowboys vs. Rams

Team Open Consensus Experts Cover Probability Expected Value
Cowboys +4.5 +5.5 +4.8 52% -1%
Rams -4.5 -5.5 -4.8 48% -9%

 

Lean Rams -5.5, Under 43.5

Cooper Rush is now 4-0 as a starter and has the Cowboys sitting at 3-1 in a grueling NFC East division. The Rams, on the other hand, are coming off a disappointing loss to the divisional rival on Monday Night.

While the Rams’ offense looked uninspired vs the 49ers last week, let’s not forget how great the 49ers’ defense has been this year. Giving up less than 4 yards per play through 4 weeks is a historic feat. So let’s not jump ship on this offense just yet.

With that said, the Cowboys’ defense has been just as efficient, giving up 4.6 yards per play, good for fourth in the league. Dallas also ranks second in the league with 15 sacks on the year.

With two teams averaging 17 points per game each, look for another low-scoring affair.


Lions vs. Patriots

Team Open Consensus Experts Cover Probability Expected Value
Lions +5.0 +3.0 +2.5 52% -2%
Patriots -5.0 -3.0 -2.5 48% -7%

 

Lean Lions +3, Under 45.5

Detroit brings one of the most potent offensive attacks into this matchup with the Patriots. Regardless of who is carrying the ball, the Lions have been extremely effective moving the ball on the ground. They’ll try to continue that trend against the 31st ranked run defense per DVOA.

On the other end, the Patriots have the same advantage, with their two-headed attack, running against the 32nd ranked run defense per DVOA in Detroit. With both teams being able to move the ball on one another on the ground, this game could turn out to be the Lions’ first under if long methodical drives develop.

The final score could come down to which quarterback makes plays when needed. With Mac Jones questionable, the Lions get the edge here. Even with injuries all over the roster, Goff has found ways to make plays and I expect that to continue Sunday.


Bengals vs. Ravens

Team Open Consensus Experts Cover Probability Expected Value
Bengals +1.0 +3.5 +2.8 52% -3%
Ravens -1.0 -3.5 -2.8 48% -6%

 

Lean Ravens -3, Over 48.5

Cincinnati whooped the Ravens in 2021, and have some newfound momentum following their 0-2 start to the season. However, be hesitant to interpret consecutive Bengals victories as a sign of the team’s problems being remedied.

Conversely, Baltimore is a different breed of 2-2. The team has trailed for a total of fourteen seconds this season, and blown second half leads of both 21 and 17 points. The frustrations with the Ravens are plentiful, but this is inarguably a good football team.

This is a difficult matchup to handicap, but I’ll back the better 2-2 team as a short home favorite. Lamar should continue to bolster his MVP case as Baltimore rebounds in primetime.


What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting “against the spread” refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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