This season at BettingPros, we’re asking some of our experts to give leans and top picks for every game on the NFL slate. Here are all of their leans, picks, best bets and predictions for Week 8.
Week 8 Spread Leans for Each Game
|Home Team||Away Team||Home Spread||Fitzmaurice||Freedman||Santora||MacMillan|
NO +1.5 vs. LV
The Saints have managed 31 points per game over the past month with backup-turned-starting QB Andy Dalton. How? The running game. The Saints have one of the league’s best rush attacks (No. 2 in rush success rate, No. 3 in rush DVOA), and the Raiders are mediocre against the run (No. 17 in rush success rate, No. 20 in rush DVOA), often allowing opponents to stay on schedule and sustain drives on the ground. Without WRs Michael Thomas (foot) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) and TE Adam Trautman (ankle), the Saints will likely rely on their running game in Week 8, and their relative edge against the Raiders rush defense should enable them to keep this contest close. In the Thursday lookahead market, the Saints were -1.5, and I still think they should be favored. Raiders QB Derek Carr is 15-25-1 ATS as a favorite.
– Matthew Freedman
JAX -2.5 vs. DEN
Both Denver and Jacksonville are 2-5 against the spread this season. Still, the Jaguars are averaging 22 points per game, while Denver is averaging just 14. Denver’s offense has failed to get anything going behind former elite QB Russell Wilson, as the Broncos offense ranks bottom 3 in EPA. Not to mention, Russ’ shoulder isn’t 100%. Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ offense ranks top 10 in EPA. Betting for the Jaguars is simply betting on the better offense to win by a field goal.
– Ben Wolbransky
CIN -3 @ CLE
The Bengals’ passing game comes in on fire into this matchup. They are third in the league in passing yards per game (303), including close to 800 yards through the air over their last two games. The Browns rank 28th in points allowed per game (26.6), and it would be hard to imagine them keeping up with the Bengals’ offense this week. The Bengals’ defense has been stout as well, holding teams to 18.9 points this season. Interesting to note, the Browns have won the last four matchups against the Bengals, but I think it is time for that streak to end.– Dylan Santora
DET +3 vs. MIA
After failing to cover the spread in the past 3 weeks, it’s time to jump back on the Lions bandwagon. Detroit will likely be getting key personnel D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown back this week, and they will be facing a much softer defense than they have seen in their previous 2 matchups (Patriots and Cowboys). While Miami managed to jump out to an early 13-0 lead on Sunday night, they only managed to put up 3 points the rest of the game and failed to cover against a very underwhelming Steelers team. In fact, the Dolphins have failed to eclipse 17 points in their last 4 games, and have only scored more than 21 points once this entire season. This will prove to be a challenge in Detroit, as the Lions are averaging a whopping 38 PPG in home games this year; take the Lions and the points.
– Austin MacMillan
Week 8 Total Leans for Each Game
|Home Team||Away Team||Over/Under||Fitzmaurice||Freedman||Santora||MacMillan|
NYG @ SEA over 44.5
Seattle vs. NYG is Week 8’s premier event; It is the only NFL game in week 8 to feature two teams with winning records. Somehow, the showdown of Geno Smith vs Daniel Jones looks great on paper. Over the last 3 weeks, both of these teams rank within the top 10 teams in scoring and passing EPA per game. While the Giants’ defense might slow down Seattle’s offense, the Seahawks are still scoring 34 points per game over the last month, the most in the NFL. 44.5 is too low.
– Ben Wolbransky
CHI @ DAL Under 43.5
The Bears come off a shocking Monday Night Football victory at New England, where they dominated in all three phases. The rejuvenated offense has been led by the legs of Justin Fields, who is averaging over 80 yards on the ground and 13 attempts over the last two games. That said, this matchup presents an extreme mismatch on paper in the trenches. The Bears are last in the league in sacks taken and pressure rate allowed. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ defense leads the league in sacks and pressure rate generated. I don’t see the Bears putting up many points this week, and the Cowboys’ offense did not look fully in sync in Dak’s first game back against a bad Lions defense.
– Dylan Santora
DEN @ JAX Under 39.5
Broncos games have gone 6-1 to the under this year, comfortably failing to reach the point total by an average of 16.4 points in the 6 games that went under. Their offense is the worst in the league, bar none, only scoring more than 16 points in one matchup this year. Denver’s defense has been elite, however, allowing the fewest yards and points per possession in the NFL. The Jaguars’ defense has been solid in its own right, ranking in the top 10 in points allowed and top 5 in rushing yards allowed per attempt, which could be a big factor this week if the Broncos lean on the run to protect Russell Wilson’s health. I don’t expect the fans in London to be treated to very many points this Sunday, as yet another Broncos game falls under the point total.
– Austin MacMillan
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