Everyone loves an instate rivalry matchup. What everyone does not love is the way Oregon got blown out by Utah last week. Losing 38-7 was unexpected by anyone. Oregon had a weak schedule this year outside of Ohio State and Utah. Oregon beat Ohio State but losing to Utah that badly left their whole season in question. That loss left Oregon with little hope in making the college football playoffs. That is what will make this game difficult to bet. This game is an in-state rivalry game, which is always difficult to bet. Bettors also have to consider how Oregon will react after last week’s loss. Lower the number of units you bet on this game, but know there is value. Let us look into the betting value play for this matchup.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
- Opening Lines: Oregon -7, Total 61.5
- Last Game: November 27, 2020, Oregon State 41-38
- Winning Streak: Oregon State (1)
Oregon has won by seven or more points in all their wins this year except one when they beat UCLA by three. The offense is averaging 430 total yards and 33 points per game. They have a balanced offense with 215 yards passing and 215 yards rushing per game. Even though they are a balanced offense, Oregon needs to run the ball to be at their best. That showed last week against Utah when Oregon had 63 rushing yards on 23 attempts. Oregon State is allowing 139 rushing yards per game. That helps Oregon’s offense because they rely heavily on the run game. Oregon can score against this Oregon State team this week. They need to show up to the game ready to play this week.
Oregon State is a phenomenal team. Statistically, they are almost identical to Oregon in every category. They average 430 total yards on offense and 33 points per game. Oregon State depends on its running game to control the close, and the defense is allowing 24 points per game. That is the same as Oregon’s defense. What makes betting of Oregon State to win tough is that they have been inconsistent. They have losses against Colorado, Washington St, Purdue, and Cal. Colorado and Cal are bad teams this year. That inconsistent in an in-state rivalry game could cost them.
After last week, this game is anyone’s to grab. Based on the inconsistency of Oregon State, the betting value lies with Oregon. The average score in their last four games is 47-19. Oregon won three of those games. Recently, they have been the better team. Consistency is the key to this game, and Oregon has been the more consistent team. After last week’s performance, lower the number of units. Both of these teams have had terrible games this year. The betting value is with Oregon, and bettors should take the value play on this game. Quack quack, Go Ducks!
Pick: Oregon -7 (-110)
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