March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Penn State vs. Texas A&M
Penn State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Jalen Pickett |
16.7 |
7.7 |
6.8 |
24.4 |
23.5 |
31.2 |
1.4 |
2.6 |
| Seth Lundy |
13.9 |
6.9 |
1.0 |
20.7 |
14.8 |
21.7 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
| Andrew Funk |
11.4 |
3.1 |
1.1 |
14.5 |
12.5 |
15.6 |
3.2 |
1.1 |
| Camren Wynter |
8.9 |
3.2 |
2.2 |
12.1 |
11.1 |
14.3 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
| Myles Dread |
4.7 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
6.7 |
5.5 |
7.5 |
1.6 |
0.2 |
| Kebba Njie |
3.4 |
4.0 |
0.5 |
7.5 |
3.9 |
8.0 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
| Kanye Clary |
4.5 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
5.7 |
5.3 |
6.5 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
| Evan Mahaffey |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Michael Henn |
1.8 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
3.3 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
| Dallion Johnson |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Caleb Dorsey |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jameel Brown |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Demetrius Lilley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Andy Christos |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dan Conlan |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ishaan Jagiasi |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Texas A&M Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Wade Taylor |
17.1 |
3.2 |
4.6 |
20.3 |
21.8 |
25.0 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
| Tyrece Radford |
13.5 |
6.2 |
2.8 |
19.7 |
16.3 |
22.5 |
1.2 |
3.9 |
| Henry Coleman |
9.5 |
6.6 |
1.1 |
16.1 |
10.6 |
17.2 |
0.0 |
2.1 |
| Julius Marble |
7.1 |
3.7 |
0.3 |
10.8 |
7.5 |
11.2 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
| Dexter Dennis |
9.3 |
6.4 |
1.4 |
15.7 |
10.7 |
17.2 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
| Hayden Hefner |
2.0 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.8 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
| Andersson Garcia |
3.2 |
4.7 |
0.9 |
7.9 |
4.0 |
8.8 |
0.1 |
1.0 |
| Manny Obaseki |
1.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
| Solomon Washington |
3.4 |
3.4 |
0.4 |
6.9 |
3.8 |
7.3 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
| Andre Gordon |
1.8 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
4.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
| Khalen Robinson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Erik Pratt |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Javonte Brown |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Davin Watkins |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Penn State vs. Texas A&M Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Penn State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Jalen Pickett Over 5.5 Assists |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
MGM |
| Camren Wynter Under 17.5 PRAs |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
| Camren Wynter Under 2.5 Assists |
130 |
1 |
1.3 |
DK |
Texas A&M
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Julius Marble Under 12.5 PRAs |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
DK |
| Dexter Dennis Under 19.5 PRAs |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
| Henry Coleman Over 7.5 Points |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
MGM |
| Wade Taylor Under 18.5 Points |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
MGM |
Win Prizes in our FREE Bracket Contest >>
More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
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Midwest
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