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PGA Betting Picks and Guide: The Fortinet Championship (2021)

by September 15, 2021
Sebastian Munoz

Formerly the Safeway Open, the Tour has been coming to Napa to play this tournament since 2015, and while the name may have changed, much will stay the same. The annual initial stop of a new season, the slate has been wiped clean as a new season begins just two weeks after the last one ended, with Patrick Cantlay winning dramatically before it was all said and done.

Let’s take a look at this week’s field and see where we can find some value.

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Previous Winners of The Fortinet Championship

  • 2020: Stewart Cink
  • 2019: Cameron Champ
  • 2018: Kevin Tway
  • 2017: Brendan Steele

Course Preview (Silverado Country Club)

Currently #43 on the PGA Tour’s rankings for the toughest courses on Tour, the average score was just -1.78  under par in the 2020-21 stop. Coming in as the 9th shortest tour on course, bombers won’t be at an advantage like they usually are, and the tree-lined fairways leave plenty of danger for those who overshoot the fairway.

With the tight fairways, the driving accuracy is more important than the average course on Tour, but the rough is more forgiving than most. However, the approach shots are fair, with birdie rates coming in higher than the average course on Tour.

Relevant Betting Stats

  • Driving Accuracy
  • Par 4 Efficiency: 350-400 Yards
  • SG: Approach
  • Approach: 200+ yards

Outright PGA Betting Picks

Sebastian Munoz (+4500 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Over the final stretch of the 21′ season, there are few golfers in this week’s field as hot as Munoz. Over his last six played events, he’s finished inside the top 30 in five of them, including two top 5s. Additionally, 11 of his 12 final rounds in 21′ finished in the 60s, as Munoz was in contention nearly every week heading into Sunday.

A closer look at the metrics, specifically the last 24 rounds, a range we typically look at when handicapping the PGA Tour, Munoz appears near the top almost everywhere. Coming into this week’s event, he is in the top 10 in ball-striking, strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: tee-to-green, and overall playing some of the best golf in his career.

Looking at his course history at Silverado, after missing a cut here in 2019, he followed up last season with a solo 33rd. He was in contention to win the event coming into Sunday before shooting a final round 76. If Munoz can put himself in the same position come this Sunday, I look for the much improved Colombian to get the job done this week in Napa.

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Johnny Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.