The PGA Tour regular season will come to an end Sunday as the playoffs get underway next week and players jockey for position in (or out) of them. The season ends this week for those not inside the top 125 of the FedEx Cup rankings, and many of those involved are right on the cut line.
Let’s take a closer look and see where the value remains.
Russell Henley (+125 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Having been on a hiatus since missing the cut at The Open Championship, Henley rattled off three top 20s in a row to put an exclamation on what has been a strong back half of 2021 (two top 10s in March/April). In what has been a hectic last 30 days for many of the guys in this tournament, crisscrossing the globe in as many as four different time zones, Henley comes into this one well-rested, and I think poised to go low.
Henley finished T9 here at Sedgefield last season, shooting a 63 in round three and finishing the week -16, his best result in four laps here.
Looking at the metrics, Henley ranks 3rd in the field in Adj SG: Approach, % Rd Gain SG Approach+Proximity, and Promiximity 125-150 yds over the last 24 rounds. He also ranks 4th on Tour with an SG: Approach of .901. While his putter has been his downfall as of late, he does excel on the Bermuda greens, which he’ll see this week. So much so that all three of his career wins have come on the surface.
While I think winning outright is price correctly, I think there’s some value in Henley finishing near the top of Sunday’s leaderboard.
Chez Reavie (+163 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Coming into this week having made seven of his last eight cuts, Reavie is quietly playing some solid golf. Before his last outing at the Barracuda Championship, he had finished T18 or higher in 2 of his previous three events. I expect a similar showing here at the relatively easy Sedgefield.
Despite missing the cut here last year, Reavie has two top 10s and has played the course nine times, so familiarity should be no issue.
Looking at his last 24 rounds, Reavie ranks #1 in % Rd Gain SG Approach+Proximity, and SG: APP+Proximity on Tiered Greens, and inside the top 10 in Adj SG: Approach, Promiximity 125-150 yd, and Promiximity 150-175 yds. Additionally, Reavie ranks first in the blended average of the Adj. SG Off-The-Tee (25th), Good Drive % (6th), and Fairways Gained (#2) over his last 20, 24, and 36 rounds, respectively.
If Reavie can make the weekend, I expect him to go low enough on Saturday and Sunday to find himself in the top part of the remaining leaderboard.
Bonus: Chez Reavie to Win (+60000 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
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