PGA Championship 2022: Round 1 Head-to-Head Best Bets

Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma is the site for the second Major of the 2022 PGA Tour season. It’s the 104th PGA Championship and the field of 156 will all be experiencing a new version of the course since undergoing renovations in 2019 under the supervision and direction of Gil Hanse.

The PGA Championship will be much more difficult to win than AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch this past weekend due to the lengthy doglegged fairways and additional water hazards weaving around the bentgrass greens. The removal of the high primary rough and reduction of trees lining the fairways provide a slightly better sightline for players when approaching the small, 5,000-square-foot greens.

Below, I walk through my three best head-to-head bets for the 2022 PGA Championship. All plays below are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.

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Patrick Cantlay over Rory McIlroy (+115)

Rory McIlroy has been electric for the majority of the 2022 PGA season. While he’s still searching for his second win outright, the 32-year-old Irishman has the skill set and irons to match the terrain at Southern Hills Country Club. McIlroy is ranked fifth or better in strokes gained off-the-tee, strokes gained tee-to-green, and total strokes gained. He also has a strong putter and averages 4.12 birdies per round.

McIlroy wound up second at Augusta National and fifth at the Wells Fargo Championship, showing his momentum after missing the cut at Valero. However, despite all of these accolades, McIlroy averages 69.57 as his first-round scoring average. This is much higher than Patrick Cantlay’s 67.25 first-round scoring average, which ranks first on the PGA Tour.

Meanwhile, Patrick Cantlay began the season with four top ten finishes but has since returned to mediocrity, posting finishes of T33, T26, and T39 most recently at Augusta National during the first Major. Yet he still managed a runner-up finish at RBC Heritage a month ago during a playoff round against Jordan Spieth. Cantlay has plus odds and is the stronger opener, making him the best bet in Round 1 against McIlroy.

Mackenzie Hughes over Cameron Champ (-130)

Mackenzie Hughes is the definition of volatile but he has a very high ceiling when he’s feeling it. The 31-year-old Canadian missed the cut at an easy TPC Craig Ranch course during the AT&T Byron Nelson this past weekend but previously yielded a T9 (-2) at the Wells Fargo Championship. The first Major at Augusta National resulted in Hughes drawing a pedestrian T50 finish at +15, which is unnerving. However, he’s got one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, ranked 16th in strokes gained putting. A 39th ranked strokes gained around-the-green also maximizes his short game, which is a point of emphasis at Southern Hills.

Cameron Champ has been on a heater, finishing T10 at Augusta, T6 at Vidanta, and T38 at AT&T Byron Nelson. He’s very good off of the tee but that’s where it ends for Champ in regards to his iron game being a notable asset. He’s first in driving distance, replacing Bryson DeChambeau, which will be a tremendous skill to have at Southern Hills’ lengthy track. Yet, Champ is not good at converting greens in regulation and has a porous putter that can betray him.

When it comes to first-round averages this season, Hughes is notably better, averaging 70.20 versus Champ’s 71.73. While this may appear close, Hughes has a better putting game, a better iron game, and averages over four birdies per round. He’s bounced around in terms of his finishes but when it comes to opening rounds at a course like Southern Hills, Hughes has a reason to be the -130 betting favorite over Champ. Take Hughes and don’t look back.

Dustin Johnson over Shane Lowry (+100)

Remember, these are best bets based on opening round finishes. Dustin Johnson has had a good season despite the lack of fanfare, drawing a T12 at the first Major during The Masters but spiraling down with a missed cut and a T59 at AT&T Byron Nelson this past weekend. Johnson averages a powerful 309.5-yard driving average, ranking 23rd on the PGA Tour, and he also averages 4.46 birdies per round.

Johnson tends to start strong and finish strong, with his weakest performances occurring during the middle rounds. Upon closer inspection, he averages 69.88 in opening rounds this season, versus Shane Lowry’s first round average of 70.5. Lowry gets better as events proceed, which is why he was able to climb into a T3 finish at Augusta National during the first Major of the season.

Take the golfer who performs strongest out of the gate with this best bet. Both Johnson and Lowry have impressive aspects to their game when it comes to their irons, although their games differ in terms of their success rate and variance. Johnson stands to be a quality value at +100 to score lower than Lowry in the opening round at Southern Hills Country Club this weekend.

PGA Championship 2022 Golfer Profiles

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