Last week, Purdue played spoiler again, defeating Michigan State at home to put together their second Top-5 win this year. Not only did the Boilermakers knock off two Top-5 opponents this year, but Purdue is also bowl eligible with their sixth win of the year.
The Boilermakers will look for their third Top-5 win of the season as they’ll travel to Ohio State to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes, who are currently Top-4 teams in CFP Rankings.
Ohio State has reeled off plenty of wins since getting upset by Oregon. However, last week against Nebraska, Ohio State didn’t look as dominant compared to previous games.
With Purdue coming off an emotional win over Michigan State, will Ohio State take care of business at home against the Boilermakers? Here are our picks and predictions for the Big 10 matchup.
- Opening Line: Ohio State -20, O/U 61
- Current Line: Ohio State -19.5, O/U 61
- Last meeting: October 20, 2018, Purdue 49, Ohio State 20
The Ohio State Buckeyes are the clear favorites in this game. Offensively, the Buckeyes have scored 44.9 points per game while they’ve allowed just 19 points on the defensive end per game.
The Buckeyes are led by C.J. Stroud, who has thrown for 2,675 yards and 25 touchdowns on the season. He’s currently a Heisman candidate as we approach Week 10. Stroud has missed a couple of snaps earlier this season due to injury but has helped guide this team to 541.8 yards per game. The young freshman is just getting better and better.
Defensively, the Buckeyes have struggled in the secondary and haven’t done well making big-time tackles. Overall, however, the defense is much better than Purdue’s this season, regardless of what the box score might say.
Ohio State has shut down the run game on the defensive end, allowing just 109.1 yards per game. The pass rush is also wicked like it always is, enabling Ohio State to pressure the quarterback at will.
Meanwhile, Purdue is averaging just 24.8 points per game while allowing 18.4 points per game. In addition, the Boilermakers average nearly 150 yards less on offense and allow just 329.8 yards per game on defense.
Purdue has been awful against the run this season, allowing 144.4 yards per game on the ground. This isn’t good knowing that Ohio State is averaging 189 yards per game on the ground this season. Purdue does have a pass rush that is capable, but it’s going to be a bit harder going up against that Ohio State offensive line.
- Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
- Boilermakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Buckeyes last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
I like Ohio State to win this game, but 20.5 points is a little much going up against a team that has knocked off two Top-5 opponents this season. However, the Boilermakers can still get some stops with a solid pass rush, and overall, Purdue is the better tackling team on defense.
Both offenses have plenty of potential, and if there are more possessions, Purdue will score more as well. Purdue likes lower-scoring affairs, but they’ll have no choice but to tally up the points going up against Ohio State.
Take Purdue here at +20.5. Ohio State is just getting way too many points here. However, I also don’t mind the over and believe both offenses are capable. Ohio State’s defense will have a great pass rush, but if Purdue can get the ball out quickly behind Aiden O’Connell, good things will happen with David Bell at receiver.
Pick: Purdue +20.5 (-110)
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