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San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints Odds & Game Pick

by December 6, 2019

In what could very well be the game of the week, The San Francisco 49ers will take on the New Orleans Saints. The best record in the NFC will be on the line as these two powerhouse 10-2 teams clash in an early start. The 49ers will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The Saints will look to make it four wins in a row.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -3.5 on the New Orleans Saints. The consensus over/under total opened at 45.5 points. The point spread has fallen to -2.5. The over/under total has also decreased to 44.5.
  • Current Line: New Orleans -2.5
  • O/U: 44.5
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, December 8th
  • Last Meeting: New Orleans defeated San Francisco 41-23 – November 6, 2016

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the 49ers at Saints. >>

Overview

The 10-2 New Orleans Saints have been on a roll this season, and with four games left on their schedule, they will be looking to open up a path to running the table with a win against the San Francisco 49ers this weekend. New Orleans has dealt with some injuries to their top stars in Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Marshon Lattimore, but have shown resilience. They have rattled off nine wins in their last 10 games, a time period that they are also 8-2 against the spread. The Saints dropped two games that looked like easy wins, one to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, the other to their division rivals in the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10. Their marquee wins this season have come against the Houston Texans and the Seattle Seahawks. With a win on Sunday against by far the toughest team remaining on their schedule, the Saints will have the opportunity to finish the season 14-2.

The 10-2 San Francisco 49ers have been dogged by questions regarding how legitimate they were for the first 12 weeks of the season. They were 8-0 heading into Week 10, and had their first true tough test of the season against the Seattle Seahawks. The contest ended as a game of the year candidate, but the 49ers would ultimately lose, making their detractors crow even louder. They would defeat the Green Bay Packers in Week 12, but their detractors were quick to point out that Green Bay had been on a bit of a slide that included a stunning loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Week 13 brought them their second true test of the season, and they lost again in a game decided by a field goal. While the 49ers were not able to beat the better teams in the league that they have faced this season to this point, they did prove during those games that they can stay competitive with the very best that 2019 has to offer. San Francisco should get to at least 12 wins this season, but getting to 13 or 14 will require a Week 17 win in Seattle, and/or a win this weekend against the New Orleans Saints.

Trends

  • San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in their last five contests against New Orleans.
  • The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four contests between these two teams. 
  • Over is 6-1-1 in the last eight contests between these two teams.
  • San Francisco is 7-4 ATS on the season.
  • San Francisco is 4-2 on the road this season. 
  • New Orleans is 8-4 ATS on the season. 
  • New Orleans is 3-3 ATS at home this season.
  • San Francisco is 4-0 ATS in their last four contests as underdogs. 
  • San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against teams with winning records. 
  • San Francisco is 4-0 ATS in their last four contests as a road underdog.
  • New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 contests. 
  • New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in their last nine contests against the NFC.
  • New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home contests.
  • New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in their last five December contests. 
  • Over is 4-1 in San Francisco’s last five contests against the NFC.
  • Over is 4-1 in San Francisco’s last five contests as a favorite. 
  • Under is 4-1 in San Francisco’s last five contests following a win ATS.
  • Over is 5-2 in San Francisco’s last seven road contests against teams with winning home records. 
  • Over is 4-1 in New Orleans’ last five contests as a home favorite of 10 or less points.
  • Over is 7-2 in New Orleans’ last nine contests as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0 points.
  • Under is 7-3 in New Orleans last 10 contests following a straight-up win. 

Prop Bets

San Francisco team total over 20.5 points (-115)
With no worthwhile early player props available at PointsBet, our top prop bet of the week in San Francisco team total over. With the win probability for the consensus point spread for this contest close to even, and the New Orleans offense looking boom or bust this weekend, the 49ers team total over seems to have the highest win probability of any potential wager for this contest. The over for this contest has some serious appeal, but as mentioned, New Orleans is indeed the favorite but is the likelier of the two teams not to match or exceed their team total. San Francisco will be hard to stop from getting to 21 points. This is a potential multi-unit play, especially if your personal lean is that the 49ers win outright. 

Bottom Line

The over was given serious consideration here, but the 49ers team total prop listed above appears to have a higher win probability. A battle between two 10-2 teams with a point spread of fewer than three points ultimately comes down to team strength and form. New Orleans is the better team when they are at the top of their game. San Francisco has been the more consistent team. A team that could be 12-0 if not for a thrilling overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and having the misfortune of having Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on the schedule, the 49ers can win this contest outright.

New Orleans has lost to two easily beatable teams in the Los Angeles Rams and the Atlanta Falcons, but have stood tall against Seattle and Houston. There is no perceptible edge for the consensus point spread for this contest, certainly not enough of one to warrant multi-unit action. This is a contest to enjoy watching. If forced to pick a team from this contest, it would be New Orleans due to playing at home and having the superior offense. The 49ers could have problems trying to keep pace with the Saints offense if they get rolling, especially with Marshon Lattimore healthy. This is a one-unit play at best and is one live bettors should be paying particular attention to. 

Pick: New Orleans Saints -2.5 (-110)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.

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