The Impact of NFL Coaching Changes on Passing Yards Totals (2022)

One of the most overlooked aspects of football is continuity. Imagine spending a few years at your job and suddenly the company gets bought out. The company that acquired you then brings in new processes and procedures that you need to learn to do the same job you have been doing for the last few years. Yes, of course, you will learn the new way and probably still be able to perform your job at the same level at some point. However, it will most likely take some time. This is the same way we should view coaching changes and how they impact offenses, especially in the passing game. The whole offense will need to learn new route combinations, play calls, and cadences. All these things will take time and, in some cases, a full season before they hit their peak performances.

Instead of just assuming there is an impact when there is a coaching change, we decided to back this concept up with data. We reviewed the 2021 passing yards totals to see if the QBs who had these coaching staff changes met their totals from last year.

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One of the most overlooked aspects of football is continuity. Imagine spending a few years at your job and suddenly the company gets bought out. The company that acquired you then brings in new processes and procedures that you need to learn to do the same job you have been doing for the last few years. Yes, of course, you will learn the new way and probably still be able to perform your job at the same level at some point. However, it will most likely take some time. This is the same way we should view coaching changes and how they impact offenses, especially in the passing game. The whole offense will need to learn new route combinations, play calls, and cadences. All these things will take time and, in some cases, a full season before they hit their peak performances.

Instead of just assuming there is an impact when there is a coaching change, we decided to back this concept up with data. We reviewed the 2021 passing yards totals to see if the QBs who had these coaching staff changes met their totals from last year.

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Right off the bat, you can see the impact was real for the 2021 QB class that had a change in their coaching staff. Seven of the eight QBs failed to hit their passing yards totals. The lone player who bucked the trend was Justin Herbert. A key that allowed Herbert to hit the over on his total was the Chargers' pass volume. Last season, Herbert threw the ball 672 times. That was second most in the NFL, only trailing Tom Brady. Of the remaining players, six of the seven QBs in the sample were on teams outside the top 10 in pass attempts last season.

Now some of these QBs didn't play 17 games, including Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Zach Wilson. This could easily contribute to all of them not hitting the over on their passing yards totals. However, on a per-game basis, all five players fell short by an average of 22 yards per game. A final nugget we want to share from the 2021 data is that the 17-game pace of all eight QBs who had a coaching change last season was 3,808 passing yards.

2022 QBs with A Scheme/Coaching Change

Before diving into the individual players, a few items stood out. Of the nine QBs with changes in their coaching staff heading into 2022, six of them will need to see a bump in passing yards per game from 2021 to reach their passing yards total for 2022. The three QBs who were on pace to hit their 2022 passing yards totals based on 2021 per-game production are Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, and Kirk Cousins.

The next item we want to discuss is which QBs are in pass-heavier schemes. Trevor Lawrence, Baker Mayfield, and Davis Mills all have new play-callers that tend to be more pass-happy than their predecessors.

Finally, some of these QBs are now surrounded by improved talent. For example, the Raiders and Dolphins acquired Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. And the Jaguars signed Christian Kirk. Improved surrounding talent could be a factor in hitting their totals this season.

The Top Three Passing Yards Totals to Bet the Under

Daniel Jones — Passing Yards Total: 3,650.5

It is easy to view the success of Josh Allen over the past two seasons and think that Daniel Jones is going to see an influx of pass volume. However, we should point out that in the first two years, 2018 and 2019, under Brian Daboll, Allen didn't dominate in the passing game. Allen's 17-game pace for passing yards was only 3,304 yards per season vs. 4,611 yards over the last two seasons. Another key factor is Jones' inability to stay healthy. Over his first three seasons, he has only averaged 12.6 games played per year. This could factor in again in 2022, making the passing yards under a solid bet.

Justin Fields — Passing Yards Total: 3,350.5

The Bears didn't make it easy for Justin Fields to hit his passing yards total this season. First, he has limited weapons after Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet in the receiving corps. Currently, the Chicago roster is filled with NFL journeymen with limited production and unproven rookies. Next, the Bears currently boast a bottom-two offensive line according to PFF's latest offensive line rankings. This situation will most likely force Fields to run more and limit his chances of hitting his passing yards over. Also, in the past, QBs with similar skill sets typically haven’t had big passing seasons their first year as a full-time starter. Players like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Robert Griffin III all threw for less than 3,350 yards in their first year as a starter.

Derek Carr — Passing Yards Total: 4,550.5

Derek Carr could have arguably the best weaponry of his career. However, it has taken him time to acclimate to new schemes in the past. In his first season with Jon Gruden, Carr had his lowest yards per attempt output of 7.3 in the four years in that scheme.  His 17-game pace for that season of 4,302 yards would have fallen short of his 2022 passing yards total. As for his new head coach/play-caller Josh McDaniels, in his 14 seasons calling plays from 2006-2019, his offenses have averaged 4,468 passing yards per year. The last two seasons (2020 and 2021) were removed for obvious reasons. The long-term upside for Carr is high, but in Year 1, he could find it hard to hit his 4,550 passing yards total.

Sources: BettingPros, Razzball, ProFootball Focus, Pro Football Reference, and FFToday

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