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The Impact of NFL Coaching Changes on Passing Yards Totals (2022)

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by August 24, 2022
Derek Carr

One of the most overlooked aspects of football is continuity. Imagine spending a few years at your job and suddenly the company gets bought out. The company that acquired you then brings in new processes and procedures that you need to learn to do the same job you have been doing for the last few years. Yes, of course, you will learn the new way and probably still be able to perform your job at the same level at some point. However, it will most likely take some time. This is the same way we should view coaching changes and how they impact offenses, especially in the passing game. The whole offense will need to learn new route combinations, play calls, and cadences. All these things will take time and, in some cases, a full season before they hit their peak performances.

Instead of just assuming there is an impact when there is a coaching change, we decided to back this concept up with data. We reviewed the 2021 passing yards totals to see if the QBs who had these coaching staff changes met their totals from last year.

Matthew Freedman’s 2022 NFL Season-Long Player Projections & Props Bets >>

Player Name 2021 Passing Yards Line Actual 2021 Passing Yards 2021 Total Differential Over/Under
Justin Herbert 4450.5 5014 563.5 Over
Trevor Lawrence 4050.5 3641 -409.5 Under
Matt Ryan 4450.5 3968 -482.5 Under
Jalen Hurts 3650.5 3144 -506.5 Under
Jared Goff 3995.5 3245 -750.5 Under
Russell Wilson 4250.5 3113 -1137.5 Under
Tua Tagovailoa 4000.5 2653 -1347.5 Under
Zach Wilson 3800.5 2334 -1466.5 Under


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