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The Longshots: Saturday’s Top Underdog Plays (8/14)

by August 14, 2021
Vergil Ortiz

Do you want to win a lot of money without risking much? Who doesn’t? That is the basis this Longshots article series is built on. Three or four times per week, we will find a considerable underdog or funky special line to toss a small wager on and then root like hell for the upset! We will play all “dog” parlays, big event specials, or perhaps literally throw darts at a dart league prop. But, regardless of the sport, the payouts will always be 10 to 1 (+1000) or better. Additionally, we will include one LEAN on a 4 to 1 (+400) or better line for your consideration.

Most importantly, you should never wager money you aren’t willing to lose. Knowing your bankroll limitations is doubly true when betting on the long odds we recommend in these articles. Most pros recommend that you formulate a 1 unit value for standard bets, so bets placed here will be smaller than that — think 0.1 unit increments. Meaning, if you typically wager $10 on a -110 line, you should drop $1 on these 10:1 or greater odds.

Without further adieu, here are today’s longshots.

Longshots YTD: 0-5-0 | -0.5 units

Lean YTD: 2-2-0 | +0.9 units

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The WBO International welterweight champion, Vergil Ortiz (17-7, 17 KOs), matches up with the ‘Mean Machine’ Egidijus Kavaliauskas (22-1-1, 18 KOs) at The Ford Center in Ortiz’s home state of Texas. These two knockout artists may be ten years apart in age, but they share a lot in common inside the ring. Ortiz’s current trainer, Robert Garcia, once sat in the corner of the Mean Machine. No one knows these two fighters like Garcia, a prized cornerman, and he could prove the difference on Saturday night.

Ortiz is a -1400 favorite. However, Kavaliauskas is perhaps the first opponent who could test Ortiz with his heavy hands. Both fighters will need to be wary of a misstep that could land them looking up from the mat early on. Understanding their opponent is just one shot from a KO should lead to a slower start than each is typically involved in. Although I do not see this fight going the distance, a stoppage is most likely to end the bought. I do think the Mean Machine gives the champion a good run. That is why our longshot play on the match is Vergil Ortiz to WIN in Round 9 at +1000. Our lean is to cover the final three rounds at +600, as Ortiz will eventually wear down the older Kavaliauskas and put him away late.

Longshot Bet of the Day

Vergil Ortiz to WIN in Round 9 +1000

Lean

Vergil Ortiz to WIN in Rounds 10-12 +600

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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.

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