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The Longshots: Saturday’s Top Underdog Plays (9/11)

by September 11, 2021
Kurt Busch

Do you want to win a lot of money without risking much? Who doesn’t? That is the basis this Longshots article series is built on. Three or four times per week, we will find a considerable underdog or funky special line to toss a small wager on and then root like hell for the upset! We will play all “dog” parlays, big event specials, or perhaps literally throw darts at a dart league prop. But, regardless of the sport, the payouts will always be 10 to 1 (+1000) or better. Additionally, we will include one LEAN on a 4 to 1 (+400) or better line for your consideration.

Most importantly, you should never wager money you aren’t willing to lose. Knowing your bankroll limitations is doubly true when betting on the long odds we recommend in these articles. Most pros recommend that you formulate a 1 unit value for standard bets, so bets placed here will be smaller than that — think 0.1 unit increments. Meaning, if you typically wager $10 on a -110 line, you should drop $1 on these 10:1 or greater odds.

Without further adieu, here are today’s longshots.

  • Longshots YTD: 0-14-0 | -1.4 units
  • Longshots of September: 0-1-0 | -0.1 units
  • Leans YTD: 3-7-0 | +0.9 units
  • Leans of September: 0-1-0 | -0.1 units

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On Saturday, NASCAR runs the second race in its Championship Playoff at Richmond, home of the Federated Auto Parts 400. Drivers in this field will start in points standings order, with Kyle Larson on the pole. Outside of Denny Hamlin, the other playoff-qualified cars will all be trying to make the cut into the Top-12.

Richmond’s short track has favored Joe Gibbs Racing drivers in its history. That is why the Top 3 drivers listed by odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are all JGR racers. Martin Truex (+550), Denny Hamlin (+600), and Kyle Busch (+750) are the favorites, with Kyle coming in as our lean.

One racer not with Gibbs is our longshot. Kurt Busch (+3500) is starting in the 13-hole but has had a very good summer. He hasn’t put together the wins, but he’s run fantastically and has gotten better as the days have gotten shorter. Kurt has a good history in Richmond, winning easily in 2018. Taking the checkered on Saturday would clinch the Top 12 and put the forgotten Busch brother in a prime position to potentially claim a Cup title in 2021!

Longshot Bet of the Day

NASCAR Federated Auto Parts 400 Kurt Busch OUTRIGHT +3500

Lean

Kyle Busch OUTRIGHT +750

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Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Bet on Sports — or head to more advanced strategy — like 10 Tips to Become a Sharper Sports Bettor — to learn more.

Aaron Pags is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.

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