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ThriveFantasy PGA Best Bets for March 10th, 2020

by March 10, 2020

ThriveFantasy is one of the most intriguing and exciting names in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based offerings, ThriveFantasy offers a variety of attractive prop based contests. They have two exciting DFS contest types to choose from, the Contest Lobby and the Props Lobby.

Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two to four props to win cash. Two correct selections pays a 3.6x time multiplier, three correct predictions pays a 6.2x multiplier, and four correct picks pays an 11-times multiplier. In these contests, you are competing against yourself, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount. 

The Contest Lobby is where things really get intriguing. The Contest Lobby offers prop contests for a variety of different sports and esports, including the PGA. The golf contests are a little different than the format for the NBA or the NFL. The main difference between PGA and NBA or NFL contests in the Contest Lobby is that instead of selecting 10 of 20 props, you are tasked with making five predictions out of the 10 listed props. You will be required to make two additional picks to ensure fairness just in case one of your players fails to play. These backup picks are called ice picks.

This week we will take a look at our top three plays for the Players Championship contest that begins on March 12th. The contest is for the first round only. With only five selections, the point totals take on added importance, as due to a limited amount of possible pick combinations, there are likely to be a number of similar or matching lineups from different entrants. With that being said, there are some strong bets that may be potentially chalky plays, that should make it into at least one of your entries. Let’s dig in.

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Rory McIlroy 3.5 Eagles + Birdies (o 80/u 120)
Rory McIlroy has been enjoying a strong season and is currently ranked number one in the world. He is the defending Players Championship champ, and looks set to have another strong event starting on Thursday. He is on a streak of seven consecutive top-five finishes and sits in first in adjusted scoring. McIlroy went over 3.5 eagles + birdies in each round of last year’s Player Cup event, averaging a robust 5.5 per round. He had at least four in every round, and is a strong bet to hit at least four (and the over) in the first round of this year’s event. Unfortunately, ThriveFantasy offers only 80 points for the over, but this is one of the top props for this contest and should be one of the five plays plugged in, failing that as one of your ice picks.
Pick: Rory McIlroy over 3.5 eagles + birdies (80 points)

Justin Thomas 68.5 strokes (o 90/u 110)
Justin Thomas is currently ranked as one of the best golfers in the world (number four), but remains more inconsistent than one would like. He went over par in the Mexico Championship and has missed two of the last four cuts. He has been relatively strong at the Players Championship, most notably finishing in the top three in 2016. Thomas has a 70.74 average at the Players Championship overall, which suggests that the under may be the smarter play here. In last year’s competition, he averaged 70.75 with his best round being 70 strokes in rounds three and four. It is hard to fade Thomas as he can get hot at a moment’s notice, but due to his volatility and recent history, the over at 90 points remains the best bet here.
Pick: Justin Thomas over 68.5 strokes (90 points)

Jon Rahm 0.5 Eagles (o 140/u 60)
Eagles bets are some of the toughest plays to bet overs on, but due to the low win probability, come with a high return attached. Jon Rahm should be good for at least one eagle at this event, but predicting what round it will occur in is the tough part. Rahm is currently ranked as the number two golfer in the world, and placed in the top three in his last event at the Mexico Championship. Rahm managed just one eagle at last year’s Player Championship, giving him an average of .25 per round. His eagle came in round three. He had zero eagles in 2017 and 2018, and is a strong bet to hit the under for this over/under at ThriveFantasy. A 60 point play does not move the needle much, but this prop is bound to be a very chalky play that should be included in most entries.
Pick: Jon Rahm under 0.5 eagles (60 points)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.