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ThriveFantasy PGA Best Bets for WGC-Mexico Championship

by February 18, 2020

ThriveFantasy is one of the most intriguing and exciting names in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based offerings, ThriveFantasy offers a variety of attractive prop based contests. They have two exciting DFS contest types to choose from, the Contest Lobby and the Props Lobby.

Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two to four props to win cash. Two correct selections pay a 3.6x time multiplier, three correct predictions pays a 6.2x multiplier, and four correct picks pay an 11 times multiplier. In these contests, you are competing against yourself, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount. 

The Contest Lobby is where things really get intriguing. The Contest Lobby offers prop contests for a variety of different sports and esports, including the PGA. The golf contests are a little different than the format for the NBA or the NFL. The main difference between PGA and NBA or NFL contests in the Contest Lobby is that instead of selecting 10 of 20 props, you are tasked with making five predictions out of the 10 listed props. You will be required to make two additional picks to ensure fairness just in case one of your players fails to play. These backup picks are called ice picks.

We will take a look at our top four plays for the WGC-Mexico Championship contest that begins on February 20th. The contest is for the first round only. With only five selections, the point totals take on added importance, as due to a limited amount of possible pick combinations, there are likely to be a number of similar or matching lineups from different entrants. Let’s dig in.

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Justin Thomas 67.5 Strokes (o 95/u 105)
Justin Thomas was under 67.5 strokes in two of his four rounds at this course last year. He was just under the number at 66 in the first round but was able to put it all together in the fourth and final round. Thomas will be looking to build on the 62 he shot in the final round of last year’s event and is a good bet to hit the under in the first round on Thursday. Thomas had his struggles in his last outing but has a strong history at this event to lean on.
Pick: Justin Thomas under 67.5 strokes (105 points)

Rory McIlroy 3.5 Birdies (o 80/u 120)
Rory McIlroy had an eagle and seven birdies in last year’s first-round and is a good bet to easily clear the posted total on Thursday. This is arguably the top prop on the board for this contest, and will likely be featured in a high percentage of entrant selections. He had over 3.5 birdies in every round in last season’s event, averaging a robust 6.25 per round. McIlroy showed incredible consistency on a number of holes at the 2019 WGC-Mexico Championship, generating birdies in every round on three different holes.
Pick: Rory McIlroy over 3.5 birdies (80 points)

Dustin Johnson 12.5 Pars + Bogeys (o 90/u 110)
Dustin Johnson went under 12.5 pars plus bogeys in three of his four rounds at the 2019 WGC-Mexico Championship. Johnson has been terrific at this event since it moved to Mexico City in 2017 and is a strong bet to hit the under for this prop. The juice is on the over, but based on his success here, the under appears to be the safer play. Take the plus points and run.
Pick: Dustin Johnson under 12.5 pars plus bogeys (110 points)

Jon Rahm 0.5 Eagles (o 125/u 75)
Rahm has been playing well recently but did not show so well in last year’s event. He finished at two-under but managed just one eagle in his four rounds. The under is the smart play, but at just 75 points, combining this with the McIlroy play may leave one behind the eight ball as far as contest points are concerned. The under has the higher win probability, but the over is a gamble that could propel you to the top of the contests leaderboard.
Pick: Jon Rahm under 0.5 eagles (75 points)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.

Contests, Golf