We’ve now seen at least one game played in every NBA playoff series. While those datapoints can prove useful for betting on subsequent games, it’s important not to get shortsighted. Make sure to consider playoff data against the backdrop of the regular season when betting on player props.
Without any further ado, here are two top NBA player props for Monday’s betting card.
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1. Reggie Bullock Over 12.5 Points | -106 at FD Sportsbook
Bullock isn’t the most exciting player, but the journeyman sharpshooter has a massive role on this team. With both Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr. sidelined, the Mavericks have very little talent they can use at wing. Of their available personnel in the rotation, only Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Josh Green have spent any time at small forward.
Oh, and if the Mavericks ever want to rest either Jalen Brunson or Spencer Dinwiddie, they’re left with only Bullock or Josh Green to play at the two.
We saw the consequences of this in Game 1: Bullock had to play 44 minutes. He shot 5-for-10 from the floor and went 3-for-8 from long range, and he added a couple of free throws for 15 points. In contrast, Josh Green went 0-for-4 from the perimeter and missed two wide-open threes. Expect plenty of minutes and just enough scoring from Bullock tonight.
2. Fred VanVleet Over 6.5 Assists | +105 at DK Sportsbook
With Scottie Barnes sidelined, Fred VanVleet is in line for a bigger role, both as a scorer and as a passer. We’ll target his assists line because it sits below his season average (6.7) yet resides in the plus money at DraftKings.
VanVleet compiled six assists in Game 1. Barnes racked up eight and Siakam got seven. With Barnes out of the lineup, both VanVleet and Siakam will have to do more ball-handling, and that should lead to a few extra assists.
We’ve seen VanVleet cash this prop against the 76ers already. He racked up seven assists against them in the lone regular season game he played versus Philadelphia. He isn’t the world’s best playmaker, but this line has no business sitting up at +105-which is exactly why you’ll find it closer to -105 at other books.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.