The Boston Celtics can sweep the Brooklyn Nets tonight, but I’m more interested in the contest between the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks. The last time we saw these teams, the Jazz picked up a crucial home win in a controversial manner. I expect the Mavericks to avenge their Game 4 defeat behind a strong team performance, and I’ve picked out two props in line with that expectation.
Here are two top NBA player props for Monday’s betting card.
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1. Luka Doncic Over 3.5 Threes | -120 at FD Sportsbook
I don’t think the Utah Jazz have anyone capable of covering Luka Doncic. The young star nailed four three-pointers on 10 attempts in Game 4, including a crucial late-game triple that went right over Rudy Gobert’s head.
Utah’s Bojan Bogdanovic served as Doncic’s primary defender in Game 4, playing a team-high 7:30 minutes lined up against Doncic. Danuel House Jr. spent 2:20 on Doncic, and Gobert spent a crucial 1:43 on the Slovenian. Some of those were double teams. Although House earned a positive defensive grade in FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR ratings for the regular season, Bogdanovic was a serious liability. He ranked 263rd of 280 players with 1,000-plus minutes. Unsurprisingly, Bogdanovic has remained a negative defender in the playoffs.
Of course, Rudy Gobert was one of the leaders in the metric during the regular season. But for all his elite rim protection, Gobert is a liability on the perimeter-he has allowed players lined up against him to make 38.7% of their three-pointers through Game 4. Doncic’s clutch three only illustrates Gobert’s struggles.
We could see the Jazz pivot and use Royce O’Neal against Doncic, but the usually solid defender has a negative defensive RAPTOR rating through four games against Dallas. Utah’s best perimeter defender this series has been Danuel House Jr., and that tells you how awful their defense is. Fortunately for Doncic, leaving House on the court seriously limits Utah’s offense, so they aren’t likely to give him more than his standard 10-to-20 minutes of run.
2. Rudy Gobert Under 13.5 Points | -110 at DK Sportsbook
Speaking of Gobert, let’s bet against his scoring in Game 5. Gobert did almost nothing in the series’ first two games, both of which came in Dallas. He tallied five points-all from free throws-in Game 1. After that, he scored eight in Game 2.
Gobert’s success in Game 3 stemmed from luck. He made every field goal and free throw on his way to 15 points. His success in Game 4 stemmed from volume. The Mavericks knew Gobert was struggling from the charity stripe, so they felt comfortable fouling him deep into the game. As a result, Gobert tallied 17 points after shooting 4-for-8 from the field and 9-for-18 from the line.
With this series headed back to Dallas, Gobert will have to again contend with a hostile crowd. He almost certainly won’t get as many foul calls, either-his 18 free throw attempts in Game 4 tied his season high.
The Mavericks let Gobert go for 14-plus points just once the regular season, and that performance came in Utah. The big man finished with totals of 14, 12, and 10 in the three games he played against the Mavericks. Gobert graded as Utah’s second-worst offensive player in the regular season for a reason. Don’t expect him to do much scoring in Game 5.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.