Noah Syndergaard, Trevor Bauer, and Collin McHugh all can provide an edge to bettors in an exciting day of MLB action. Analyzing team form and trends will not give you a full enough picture, and as such I will make sure to evaluate starting pitchers when looking for advantages. Today, I will examine three of Wednesday’s top plays, focusing on moneyline plays that can be used as single-bet options or a parlay. Let’s dive right into it.
New York Mets vs. Minnesota Twins
|New York Mets||6-4||6.0||-1|
The New York Mets and the Minnesota Twins will do battle in an evening affair. This is a pretty even matchup on paper. The Mets are the stronger team based on our power rankings, and they also hold an edge in the scoring department. The Twins have played one fewer game, so they have a better winning percentage despite having as many victories as the Mets. They also have an advantage in run differential. The Twins and Mets look evenly matched in the team form arena.
The edge we can potentially gain here comes from the starting pitchers. Syndergaard will take the mound for the Mets while the talented, but often erratic Jake Odorizzi gets the call for the Twins. Both pitchers hold 0-1 records, but Thor has been more impressive. He holds a less than spectacular ERA but has shined in the WHIP department. The Mets hold the edge in pitcher form.
The trends here are pretty strong in support of a Mets victory. The Mets have won four of their last five outings against the AL Central. They are also undefeated in their last six Game 2s of a series. Syndergaard gives the Mets a big boost as the starter in today’s contest. The Mets are 6-1 in his last seven interleague starts and 7-2 in his last nine home starts. They also boast an impressive 4-1 record in his last five starts at home against a team with a winning record.
On the other hand, there are several trends that suggest the Twins may not have a good chance to pick up their second consecutive victory. They sit at 1-5 in their last six games against the NL East and are 1-8 in their last nine interleague road games. While the Twins have won five of Odorizzi’s last seven interleague starts, that is where the good news ends. They sit at 1-4 in his last five starts against a team with a winning record and are winless in his last eight road starts of that nature. The Mets hold a decided edge in terms of trends.
The odds here speaks volumes. A -205 line makes the Mets the biggest favorite of the day and a contest Vegas is trying to dissuade us from betting on. In fact, the odds opened at -233. Odorizzi is a very inconsistent pitcher, but he has the talent to help the Twins win. However, Syndergaard is the superior pitcher who has both form and trends behind him. The public is as split on the outcome as the line movement may suggest. They are currently 53 percent in favor of the Mets, suggesting that bettors are also finding value in the +175 the Twins offer, especially after a 14-run outburst last night. The Mets are the pick here, but they may be better utilized in a parlay. The line movement and lack of a public lean should cause some concern.
Pick: New York Mets
Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers
The Cleveland Indians are set to face their AL Central rivals, the Detroit Tigers. The Indians, in the midst of a five-game winning streak, have been the stronger team so far this season. They hold the edge in runs scored and allowed. Bauer has excelled in his two starts this season, and there is no reason to believe that the Tigers will put an end to that with their MLB-worst 2.6 runs per game. Matt Boyd has some upside, but he is too inconsistent to trust against the surging Indians.
There are trends supporting action on either side of this matchup. The Indians are undefeated in their last four games following a win. They sit at the same mark in their last four games following an outing in which they allowed four runs or fewer. However, they have lost five of their last seven road contests against a left-handed starter. Bauer presents them with a huge advantage. Aside from being the superior pitcher, he has some positive trends on his side. The Indians are 8-2 in his last 10 starts against the AL Central. They are 5-1 in his last six road starts and sit at the same mark in his last six Wednesday starts.
On the Tigers side, they’ve won five of their last six games and hold the same record in their last six against a right-handed starter. They are undefeated in Boyd’s last five home starts and are 5-2 in his last seven turns overall. They are also an impressive 7-3 in his last 10 starts against a team with a winning record. On the flip side, the Tigers are 4-9 in his last 13 home outings against a team with a winning record. To make matters worse, they are 7-15 in his last 22 starts against the AL Central. Finally, they are 1-5 in Boyd’s last six starts during the second game of a series. Cleveland holds the slight edge here based on pitcher form.
The odds on this contest are interesting. Despite having both form and trends behind them Cleveland is only a -145 favorite. The Tigers sit at just +125. As mentioned, there are some trends supporting a Tigers victory, but the trend department leans heavier towards the Indians. The public lean of 75 percent suggests potential value in the line as it currently stands. The fact that the odds are so low, however, should be concerning. The line is set as if Vegas believes the Tigers have more than a small chance to pull out a victory. The Indians are rolling right now, and they should keep it up this afternoon.
Pick: Cleveland Indians
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
|New York Yankees||5-6||5.0||+14|
The Houston Astros are set to square off against the New York Yankees tonight in the third game of their series. They are looking for the sweep despite still scoring fewer runs per game on the season. While the Astros carry the better team record, the Yankees have them beat convincingly in offense thanks to pounding the Baltimore Orioles. The Astros will deploy the superior starting pitcher so far in McHugh.
The Yankees will call on James Paxton, who has been far from impressive this season. McHugh, on the other hand, currently sports a sparkling 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. With two wins already in their pocket in this series, the Astros hold the edge in the team form department. McHugh gives them the advantage in pitcher form.
As you may expect from a battle of two of the American League’s top teams, the trends offer little in the way of clarity. The Yankees are 4-1 in their last five road games. They are also 6-2 in their last eight road games against teams with a winning record. On the other side of things, they’re an interesting 2-7 in their last nine Wednesday games. They are 1-11 in their last 12 Game 3s of a series and are 6-14 in their last 20 outings against a pitcher with a WHIP under 1.15.
The Astros are just as perplexing. They have won four of their last five road games and are 14-6 in their last 20 against a left-handed starting pitcher. They are 4-1 in McHugh’s last five starts and sit at the same mark in his last five starts during a series’ third game. However, they sit at 2-7 in their last nine against the AL East. Here’s a baffling trend: The Astros are 2-5 in their last seven against a pitcher with a WHIP higher than 1.30. They still seem to hold a slight edge here, mostly due to the positive trends in relation to McHugh.
This is an interesting line. The Astros are coming off two consecutive victories against the Yankees and have the better pitcher this evening. However, they are only -122 favorites, with the Yankees sitting at +102. The Astros have had to rely on late rallies in their prior two meetings, which could help explain the line. With McHugh starting, they should be able to pick up an easy victory if they maintain their scoring pace from the past two games. The Astros are the pick based on team and pitcher form and have the slight edge on trends.
Pick: Houston Astros
A parlay with these three teams would pay $357.53. All of these teams make for good single-bet options, but as all three are favorites, placing action on each of them may be cost-prohibitive. A parlay will allow you to achieve plus money at the cost of increased risk. Laying multiple units for a single-unit return is often a tough pill to swallow for many. If this sounds like you, consider the parlay here. Plus money parlays may not always click, but they can save you from laying more units on a bet, or group of bets, than you may be comfortable with.