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Top 3 MLB Bets for April 1st (Parlays & Run Line)

by April 1, 2019

Today we will take a look at three different plays that can be used in parlays or bet individually. Parlays are an appealing option when it comes to baseball, especially if you are not a fan of spreads (run line). Moneyline betting in baseball often offers little value so we look to bet options like parlays to increase potential payout at the cost of increased risk from a strict either/or scenario.

Today the teams we will look at are the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and the Los Angeles Dodgers. We are not only looking for the stronger team but also for clear pitching advantages, as opposed to honing in on favorable lines that offer plus money.

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New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

Form
The New York Yankees are facing the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers just labored through a series with the hapless Toronto Blue Jays and should struggle once again today. Domingo German is slated to make his first start of the season against the Tigers’ Tyson Ross. The Tigers are currently in better form from a winning percentage standpoint. They sit at 2-2, while the Yankees sit at 1-2 heading into today’s games. With that said, Detroit sits at only 1.5 runs per game while the Yankees sit at an average of five runs. The Yankees have the clear advantage here.

Trends
The Yankees are 49-22 in their last 71 home games against a right-handed starter. They have also dominated the AL Central to the tune of a 35-17 record in their last 52 games against the division. The Tigers are 4-9 in their last 13 games against the AL East. Based on these trends there is a greater than 50 percent chance the Yankees see an easy victory in this contest.

Line
The line for this match-up tells a story. The Yankees are currently the heaviest favorites of the day at -220. The Tigers, despite the better record, sit at +190. This is a line that should change by game time, with the public and sharps alike leaning strongly towards the Yankees.

Pick: Yankees

Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics

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The Boston Red Sox have David Price on the mound which should be enough to get the win against the Oakland Athletics. Helping matters is the fact that the A’s are set to deploy Aaron Brooks. Brooks is barely a major league starter-level talent and is just filling in for an injured Chris Bassitt. While the Red Sox have lost three of their four games this season, they have been scoring runs. They are averaging 5.33 runs per game, good enough for eighth in the league. The Athletics, on the other hand, are 3-3 but have scored only three runs per game.

Trends
Interestingly the Boston Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 Monday games. This could be as much a function of being one of the best teams in the majors as it has to do with a trend itself, but it remains noteworthy. The Red Sox have also been strong during Price’s starts themselves. They are 7-1 in his last eight game one starts. Furthermore, they are 5-1 in his last six starts against the AL West. These trends suggest that the Red Sox should be the prohibitive favorites in this contest.

Line
The line on this one is -140 for the Red Sox, with the Athletics at +120. The odds on this are relatively favorable due to Boston’s poor record. This stands out as a potential value play despite the heavy juice. The public lean on this match-up is reflected in the odds. Despite the Red Sox projecting as easy winners in this contest, only 59 percent of the public is currently on the Red Sox. This is the riskiest play of the games we will analyze today.

Pick: Red Sox

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants

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The Los Angeles Dodgers will be rolling with flamethrowing Julio Urias this evening against San Francisco. The Giants are slated to start Drew Pomeranz who is an uninspiring option at best. As with all games so early in the season, there is not much of a sample size to judge, but at this point, the Dodgers are the more talented team. They currently sit at 3-1, while the Giants sit at the opposite end of the spectrum at 1-3. Los Angeles leads the majors with 10.5 runs per game. Again the Giants sit at the other extreme, averaging only 1.25 runs per game.  

Trends
The Dodgers are an impressive 4-1 in their last five Monday games. The Giants, on the other hand, are 1-6 in their last seven outings against the NL West. Concretizing this as a good play is the fact that the Dodgers are 8-3 in Urias’ last 11 games against teams with a losing record. These trends clearly signal a strong advantage for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Line
The odds on this match-up currently sit at -205 for the Dodgers and +175 for the Giants. Even with a decided advantage on the mound, this is a play that looks much better in a favorites parlay with the accompanied increased payout. With that said, a -205 line for two teams with these profiles presents a potential opportunity. With 71 percent of the public leaning towards the Dodgers, this is a line that is sure to change.

Pick: Dodgers

Payout

The payout for this parlay is +271. Parlays are often the best way to extract maximum value from a group of money-line favorites. You get compensated for the increased outcome risk if your bet wins. You also get to lay action on three games that you would be forced to lay extra units on if you chose to bet on them individually, especially if you wanted a full unit return. Any one of these plays can be bet separately, but the suggestion here is to save units and opt for the parlay payout.

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.