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Top 3 MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Friday, August 12 (2022)

by August 12, 2022
Michael_Kopech

I hope some of you watched the “Field of Dreams” game last night. It wasn’t nearly as exciting as last season’s game, but MLB definitely did a good job making it an annual thing.

Anyway, we’re back to a normal slate of games. I won’t be betting on the Cubs or Reds with their travel schedule being a bit wacky. But there are still plenty of games on the board that we can look at. Here are my top three bets for tonight’s slate in MLB.

(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

What is a Red Sox and Yankees game without a little back and forth action? That’s what I’m expecting in tonight’s game between the two rivals.

Domingo German will take the hill for the Yankees. He has a 5.29 xFIP in the last 30 days and isn’t earning a high strikeout rate in that time frame.

He’s also allowed 31.1% of line drives in those 30 days when balls are batted into play and rarely induces ground balls. Righties are hitting a .445 wOBA and ISO of .382 against German. The Red Sox should have some hard-hitting righties in the lineup that can do damage against German.

Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi will take the hill for the Red Sox. He has had a 4.27 xFIP in the last 30 days. Lefties are hitting a .243 ISO while righties have hit a .178 ISO along with a wOBA of .388. The Bronx Bombers haven’t been nearly as good offensively, but this seems like the series where the Yankees can wake up and get back on track. Five batters in the Yankees’ order are hitting line drives at 22% or higher when balls are batted into play.

I’m taking the over.

Bet: Over 9.5 (-110 at DraftKings

Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox are fighting for the AL Central against the Guardians and Twins. The Tigers, on the other hand, are all but out of the race.

Detroit has brought back Daniel Norris, who will get his first major league appearance in nearly a month tonight. Norris has a 4.31 xFIP in the last 30 days and has walked 15.7% of batters faced in that time frame. Norris’ strikeout rate is high, but you have to remember that he was pitching in relief for the Cubs. As a starter, that strikeout rate is going to decrease as he fatigues.

The White Sox will have a lineup filled with righties against the lefty, and although the lineup hasn’t really produced at a high rate, Chicago has added Luis Robert back into their lineup. He had been sidelined for a long period of time but came back about a week ago.

On the other hand, Michael Kopech will start for the White Sox. His strikeout rate has decreased throughout the season, but he’s taking on a Tigers lineup that has struck out 29.1% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. Kopech’s strikeout rate will finally increase against a Tigers lineup with an ISO of .098 and wOBA of .260.

I’m taking the White Sox to win by multiple runs.

Bet: White Sox -1.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros

I’m going to pick on another below-average pitcher here. Adam Oller will take the hill for the Athletics, and his results haven’t been impressive. He has a 6.82 xFIP in the last 30 days and has only struck out 15.2% of batters faced in that time frame.

Oller has literally induced just 20.8% of ground balls when balls are batted into play, and he’s been allowing a high amount of extra-base hits to both sides of the plate in that same time frame.

The Astros haven’t been nearly as good offensively in the last month against righties, but every lineup that faces Oller has pretty much had success. Houston’s lineup is too stacked not to do the same.

On the other hand. Luis Garcia will get the call for the Astros. He’s limited extra-base numbers against both sides of the plate in the last 30 days and also continues to limit hard contact against him when balls are batted into play.

The Athletics have a few bats doing damage against righties, but when you start getting towards the bottom of the order, Oakland has a ton of rally killers. Spots five to nine are all hitting a below-average ISO and a below-average wOBA against righties. That will ultimately hurt the Athletics and take them out of innings.

Back the Astros on the run line.

Bet: Astros -1.5 (-155 at DraftKings)

CTAs


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Baseball, Picks