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Top 3 MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Saturday, August 13 (2022)

by August 13, 2022
Yu Darvish

A 2-1 day isn’t so bad! That’s how we did yesterday with last night’s slate.

We will try to do even better today and hunt for that sweep. Are you riding with me?

Here are my top three picks for today’s slate in the MLB.

(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Last night, the Phillies snuck out of Citi Field with a 2-1 victory over the Mets. The Phillies had plenty of hits but struggled to hit with runners on base. Meanwhile, the Mets had the best opportunity to win the game before extra innings but got hit with an inning-ending double play.

We’ll likely see fewer runners on base between Aaron Nola and Jacob deGrom. Nola has a 3.71 xFIP for the Phillies while striking out 28.8% of batters faced in the last 30 days. Nola has limited extra bases from both sides of the plate and has just had a tremendous season for the Phillies this year.

On the other hand, Jacob deGrom has been sensational since he returned to the mound. He has a 1.42 xFIP and has struck out 50% of batters faced since returning. That’s literally unheard of. But it’s Jacob deGrom, so it makes sense.

Anyway, both teams struggled to score last night, and now things will be a little harder. I’m taking the under here.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-110 at DraftKings

San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals

The Padres are finally finding their offense. Right when it was announced that Fernando Tatis Jr. would be suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs, the Padres started to rake. San Diego added 10 runs in their win against the Nationals last night, and I’m sure more offense is in store tonight.

Anibal Sanchez will take the hill for the Nationals. He’s been dreadful as of late, holding an xFIP of 6.68 in the last 30 days. Sanchez has been worse against righties and ultimately will be facing a lineup that consists of more lefties. However, the Padres are still hitting a .207 ISO with a wOBA of .356 against righties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup.

Meanwhile, the Nationals are hitting a .138 ISO and wOBA of .305 against righties in that same time frame. They’ll take on Yu Darvish, who has been way above-average in the last month of baseball, pitching with an xFIP of 3.16. The Nationals rarely work out walks and aren’t getting much power outside of Luke Voit now.

Take the Padres to win by multiple runs. That is Nationals bullpen can’t get outs either.

Bet: Padres -1.5 (-170 at DraftKings)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

The Diamondbacks will send out Zac Gallen for tonight’s game in Colorado. Gallen has a 3.36 xFIP in the last 30 days and struck out 27.2% of batters in that time frame.

Gallen has done everything right. He’s induced 59.3% of ground balls when balls are batted into play and has limited line drives to 15.3% when balls are batted into play. That will work out pretty well in Colorado if he can sustain that.

Meanwhile, Colorado will pitch Jose Urena, who has had an xFIP of 5.10 in the last 30 days. Urena has struck out 12.5% of batters faced in those 30 days but has also walked 11.6% of those batters.

Urena is constantly working with runners on base. While he does have a high ground ball rate, he’s still giving up a lot of hard contact and plenty of power. Look for the Diamondbacks to work out many walks and create havoc on the base paths en route to a victory.

Bet: Diamondbacks (-150 at DraftKings)

CTAs


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Baseball, Picks