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Top 3 MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Saturday, August 20 (2022)

by August 20, 2022
MLB World Series Player Prop Bets Picks & Predictions: Game 4 (Phillies/Astros)

Yesterday was pretty bad. We ended up going 1-2 on the night. Ultimately, it could’ve been worse. Our lone win was an under 6.5, and the game went into extra innings! So we kind of lucked out there, if we’re being honest.

Anyway, today’s a new day. Let’s find some winners.

(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves

The Braves ended up beating the Astros, 6-2, in the first game of the series, at home. Eight runs were scored between the two teams, but I think we’ll get even better pitching in tonight’s game.

Cristian Javier has had a 5.31 xFIP in the last 30 days for the Astros. He hasn’t pitched all that well analytically but has escaped with a .188 BABIP. He allows plenty of line drives and rarely induces ground balls. However, he’s always able to earn a high amount of strikeouts,

The Braves’ projected lineup is striking out 26% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. There’s power inside the lineup, but the Braves are mostly boom or bust, and Javier hasn’t allowed a high amount of extra-base hits in the last month.

On the other hand, Spencer Strider will take the hill for the Braves. He has a 2.94 xFIP in the last 30 days and has been sensational, striking out 34.6% of batters faced in that same time frame.

The Astros watched Yordan Alvarez leave yesterday’s game, and that could mean he’s out again tonight. Without Alvarez, the Astros would be a tad bit weaker offensively.

I like the under here.

Bet: Under 7.5 (-115 at DraftKings

Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics

It’ll be James Kapprielian on the mound for the Athletics tonight. In the last 30 days, he’s been dreadful, holding a 5.28 xFIP. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and he’s not getting a high rate of ground balls while allowing 22.2% of line drives when balls are batted into play.

The right-hander has been worse against righties lately, allowing a .337 wOBA and ISO of .220 to his last 49 right-handed batters.

The Mariners have a .176 ISO and wOBA of .310 against righties in their last month with the projected lineup. However, the righties in the lineup have a .210 ISO and wOBA of .331 against righties. Those are the guys that can make a real difference in the game. Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, Mitch Haniger, Eugenio Suarez, and Cal Raleigh are the righties for the Mariners.

On the other hand, Logan Gilbert will take the ball for the Mariners. He’s been a bit off recently. He’s also struggling in all categories. Gilbert is giving up a .383 wOBA, and ISO of .257 to lefties in his last 43 plate appearances against them and is also giving up a .391 wOBA and ISO of .274 against his last 79 righties.

The Athletics aren’t the best offense in the world, but they’ve limited strikeouts to 18.8% while walking 13.4% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. On top of that, Oakland has four batters hitting an above-average ISO against righties. There’s potential for Oakland to score some runs too.

Give me the over in a game between two pitchers with an xFIP above 5 in the last 30 days.

Bet: Over 7.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

I think we’re being too generous to Braxton Gilbert. Gilbert has been very good in the last 30 days, holding a 3.76 xFIP. He’s struck out 27% of batters and has walked just 6.1% of batters faced.

But to me, it feels like he’s just put up really good numbers against some really bad teams throughout the season. Once the lefty faces the Dodgers, things could be a bit different.

Garrett has allowed a .343 wOBA and ISO of .171 against his last 90 righties. The two major bats against lefties are currently Mookie Betts and Trea Turner. Those two hit at the top of the order and set the tone. Betts is hitting a .462 ISO with a wOBA of .494, while Turner is hitting a .360 ISO with a wOBA of .433.

On the other hand, Dustin May will make his first MLB start of the season tonight. Last year, he finished with a 2.19 xFIP and struck out 37.6% of batters faced. He only pitched against 93 batters but was super electric for the Dodgers this year.

Against this dreadful Marlins offense, I’d expect him to start right where he left off in the Majors. He’ll be dominant.

Bet: Dodgers -1.5  (-135 at DraftKings)

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