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Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Sunday, May 8 (2022)

by May 8, 2022
Tyler Herro Miami Heat

The NBA playoffs roar on, and no teams can secure a bid to the conference finals by sweeping their second-round opponents anymore. We’ll get two crucial games for series underdogs today: both the Dallas Mavericks and Philadelphia 76ers will look to sweep their home games and bring their respective series back to a draw. I’m skeptical that either team will do so.

Here are my top NBA betting picks for Sunday’s playoff action.

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1. Luka Doncic Under 3.5 Made Threes | +108 at FD Sportsbook

I’d rather bet on tonight’s game between the Heat and 76ers, but if you’re looking for some action in the afternoon matchup, I recommend fading Doncic here. Well, at least from beyond the arc. Although Doncic has made 3.7 triples per game in the playoffs, he averaged 3.1 per game on 35.3% in the regular season. His three-point percentage has jumped to 37.9% in the playoffs and 39.3% in this second-round matchup, which suggests some regression from distance is in order.

Doncic made four or more treys in only 25 of his 65 games for the Mavericks this season, yet the juice for this prop sits well inside the plus money. Doncic started one regular-season game against the Suns and shot 2-for-9 from distance in that contest.

I also advise targeting Doncic here because the Suns play tight perimeter defense. They allowed their opponents to convert only 33.8% of their perimeter shots during the regular season, the lowest percentage in the NBA.

2. Heat +2 | -110 at FD Sportsbook

The Miami Heat probably should be favored here. Sure, it’s a road game, and sure, the 76ers just blew them out by a 20-point margin. The Heat remain the better team. These squads split their regular-season games, although Miami often had to play without its core. The Heat lead the playoff series with two wins.

Joel Embiid’s return helped the 76ers win Game 3 by 20 points, but a deeper dive into the box score reveals some significant problems. Tyrese Maxey and Danny Green went 12-for-15 from beyond the arc, good for a ridiculous 80% three-point percentage. Yet the 76ers still only shot 48.5% from beyond the arc as a team. Maxey and Green are due for some massive regression in Game 4, and that will prevent the 76ers from getting another easy win.

In contrast, the Heat shot poorly in Game 3. They converted only 23.3% of their long-distance looks and 35.1% of all shots from the floor. Despite their awful shooting, the Heat still earned more offensive rebounds, attempted more free throws, and turned the ball over seven fewer times. All of those factors suggest Game 3 should’ve been a lot closer. The 76ers happened to get lucky in Game 3, and I don’t expect Lady Luck to look upon them as favorably in Game 4.

3. SGP: Tyler Herro 2+ 3PT + Heat ML | +168 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook

Let’s roll the above insight into a high-value SGP. We’ll take Miami outright for a bit more juice and pair that with a line that hasn’t busted yet this series. Herro has finished with four, three, and two made triples in this series. His worst performance came in Game 3, but he still attempted seven treys, which marked a series high for him. Herro finished with at least two made threes in 44 of his 66 appearances this season. The 76ers allowed their opponents to make 34.6% of their triples in the regular season, which ranks 10th best, but they haven’t been able to contain Herro all series. For instance, Herro is 4-for-6 from beyond the arc when lined up against Tyrese Maxey. The books have Herro’s line for Game 4 set at 2.5, so we’re teasing it down a bit to get some extra juice on the Miami moneyline.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

NBA, Picks