We’re up to +1.07u on the week after yesterday’s 2-1 showing. We would’ve been a lot better off had Mitchell Robinson not gone down, as his injury allowed Domantas Sabonis to go over his rebound total by just one, but that’s how things go. We’re making good reads, and I’ve got four more of them for tonight.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesday’s action.
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1. Tyrese Haliburton Over 7.5 Assists | -120 at DK Sportsbook
2. Tyrese Haliburton 10+ Assists | +220 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
The Cleveland Cavaliers have struggled against opposing point guards lately. They have given up a whopping 11.1 assists per game to the position through their last seven contests, way above their season average of 8.3. Their struggles show up in the box score - Scottie Barnes racked up six assists as Toronto’s de-facto point guard on Sunday, well above his season average of 3.3, and James Harden recorded 11 on Friday. Terry Rozier had seven on Wednesday and Patrick Beverley had six on Monday, all above their respective season averages.
Tyrese Haliburton averages 7.8 assists per game. That jumps to 9.5 when you look at his only 10 games as an Indiana Pacer. While it’s true that Malcolm Brogdon’s return has sapped his production slightly, Haliburton still averages 8.8 assists per game with him in the lineup. He even recorded 10+ assists alongside him twice!
The advanced stats are what seal the deal here. Haliburton owns an insane 37.3% assist percentage in his 380 minutes with the Pacers, which leads the team by a wide margin. That figure puts him among the NBA’s elite - for some perspective, Chris Paul owns an assist percentage of 44.4%, James Harden sits at 41.9%, and Ja Morant sits at 34.2%. Haliburton’s total assist percentage of 32.3% ranks 14th overall, but his number since joining the Pacers would rank eighth.
Haliburton has finished with at least eight assists in all but four of his games as a Pacer, and he has recorded no fewer than six in any of those outings. He dished out only six in his first game with the Pacers against the Cavaliers, but he should have built more chemistry with his teammates since then.
3. PPD: Landry Shamet 3+ 3PT + PHX ML | +170 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
4. PPD: Jae Crowder 3+ 3PT + PHX ML | +176 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
Let’s have some fun with this Suns and Magic game. Phoenix won’t have Chris Paul, Devin Booker, or Cameron Johnson, so that’ll leave their reserves with a lot of work to do. Fortunately, they’ll face the Magic and their fourth-worst perimeter defense tonight. Orlando is allowing its opponents to make 36.4% of their shots from beyond the arc this year, the fourth-worst mark in the association.
We’re targeting Shamet and Crowder here because they are the two best high-volume shooters remaining on Phoenix’s roster. Crowder has gone 1.9-for-5.2 (35.3%) from beyond the arc this year and Shamet has gone 1.6-for-4.5 (35.5%). Over the last three contests, Crowder has averaged an extra 1.1 attempts and Shamet an extra 0.8. They both haven’t finished a game with fewer than two made threes without Booker and Paul in the lineup.
The Magic could be especially vulnerable to their positions, too. Orlando has been struggling against power forwards like Crowder all year - they have given up 2.38 made triples per game to the position, sixth-most in the association. While they have fared better against shooting guards, opposing twos have still nailed 3.3 triples per game against them, 14th-most in the association. Also, Shamet would benefit immensely if Jalen Suggs were to miss his second-straight game, as the rookie guard owns Orlando’s best defensive RAPTOR rating at +2.6. The Magic have listed him as questionable for this contest.
We’re playing player performance doubles (PPDs) here because the Magic have been terrible at home. The Magic have gone 7-22 on their own court, good for the NBA’s worst home winning percentage (24.1%). The Magic won more games outside of Orlando than in it this season, and that trend should continue even against a banged-up Suns team.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.